As the Italian economy halts yet again and as the budget stalemate with its European partners intensifies, the idea of a parallel currency for Italy is again being heard around.
The basic idea of this parallel currency would be to have the Italian government increase public expenditure to jump-start the economy and to finance that increased spending by distributing government IOUs that could be used to pay future taxes.
These informal documents will acknowledge that one is owed a debt by the government but in loan form rather than bond or promissory note form.
It is believed that this approach would allow the Italian government to support the economy by increasing public spending without defying the Eurozone's rules on unjustifiably increasing public debt.
While debt issued by the Italian government falls under the Eurozone's public debt definition, it is claimed that government IOUs that can be used for future tax payments do not.
Should the European Commission accept an Italian claim that tax-related IOUs should not be included as public debt, there are at least three reasons to think that it would be a bad idea for Italy to go down the parallel currency route.
The most persuasive reason is that the issuance of a parallel currency would almost positively be viewed by the markets as a weakening of the Italian government's commitment to remain in the Euro.
Significant widening in Italian bond spreads from their present level of around 300 basis points would be seen. This would occur because investors would need to be compensated for the increased risk that Italy might at some future date indeed exit the Euro.
Any support that the Italian economy might receive from increased government spending would be more than offset by the higher interest rates that Italian companies and households might be required to pay.
There is also the real risk that introduction of a parallel currency would lead to an all-out Italian credit crunch. This would seem to be especially the case in the context of an Italian banking system that is burdened with non-performing loans and that holds around 10% of its balance sheet in Italian government bonds.
As Italian government bond prices fall, the Italian banking system's capital base would be further battered. This process has already been evident since the March 2018 Italian elections.
A second reason to think that government IOU-financed public spending increases are a bad idea is that they are bound to raise serious questions about Italy's public debt sustainability.
Even if the markets were to accept the argument that such IOUs should not be considered as public debt, they do constitute a claim on future government tax revenues.
As such, they must be viewed as weakening the government's future ability to meet its public debt service payments by reducing the future tax revenue stream at the government's disposal.
Finally, a parallel currency runs the danger of creating the equivalent of a fiscal brink. In the same way that the economy might be boosted by the increased IOU-financed public spending, so too will it be adversely affected by a return of public spending to its former level.
For this not to occur, it is to assume that the Italian government would continue boosting the economy indefinitely with ever-increasing amounts of IOU-financed public spending.
With the Italian economy again on the tip of an economic recession, it is understandable that the Italian government would like to boost the country's economy.
However, it would be foolhardy to go down the parallel currency route to do so. By inviting a further widening in Italian bond spreads, the government would risk tipping the economy into a deflationary spiral that would only exacerbate its public debt and banking sector problems.
Disclaimer: This article was issued by Maria Fenech, investment manager support officer at Calamatta Cuschieri. For more information visit, www.cc.com.mt. The information, view and opinions provided in this article are being provided solely for educational and informational purposes and should not be construed as investment advice, advice concerning particular investments or investment decisions, or tax or legal advice.
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