Extraordinary events have a tendency to instigate existential questions. They make us evaluate the past and think deeply of the future. As normal life changed unprecedentedly, the past 12 months have taught us a great deal.
Undeniably, there was a moment of shock and fear, which swiftly turned into reflection and planning for European leaders.
Emerging stronger from periods of adversity is not about quick fixes, increased financial assistance or tighter regulations. In times of rapid change and uncertainty, responsible policy must take multiple future possibilities into account. Strategic foresight has emerged as a pragmatic means to build effective and resilient governance in the face of uncertain futures. It is a modus operandi which has been promoted by the OECD and one which Ursula Von Der Leyen, president of the European Commission, has chosen to put at the heart of EU policymaking.
Our collective experience of the past months exposed European vulnerabilities which were perhaps left unchecked for a little while, including our over-reliance on third-country manufacture of critical goods. It also displayed European capacities, especially to adapt, aided by a flexible legislative and political set-up.
The first result of strategic foresight in the response to the health emergency and the resulting economic slowdown was the investment and facilitation of funding, as opposed to austerity measures imposed on Europeans in the years after the financial crash of 2008. This time, European institutions and governments alike chose to allow leeway for increased public spending to induce economic activity.
This is a time to forge new industrial alliances and diversify trading partners- Stefan Zrinzo Azzopardi
With over €312 billion in grants and €360 billion in loans, the recovery and resilience facility represents a gigantic tool for member states to recover sustainably. Foresight behind such robust support is the blend in the impetus for recovery and a guarantee that member states conform to their country specific recommendations and accelerate their green transition and digitisation process through such funds.
Adopting this kind of policymaking means that, from this point onwards, Europe is actively pursuing ways of strengthening its economic performance by inducing well-being and human-oriented labour markets. Ways are being sought for developing education, improving skills of the general population, while pouncing on opportunities for growth lying with emerging technologies. It means developing cutting-edge industry sustainably without it depleting natural resources. All these are necessary in a way that asserts EU’s global role, paving the way for stronger ties with partners.
In a shifting global order due to altering basis, among which are emerging economic powers and strategic raw materials driving industry, Europe must find its path towards an open strategic autonomy. This is a time to forge new industrial alliances, diversify trading partners and ensure we have mapped out the potential of new technology.
Sustaining our transition to a green economy (and industry) will represent a determining shift in jobs and skills necessary in many a sector. Strategic foresight directs us toward an integrated approach to education, sustaining reskilling initiatives, legal migration pathways and, in turn, safeguarding our social fabric by supporting employment.
It becomes clearer that our green and digital transitions are, and should be, interrelated with the social, economic and geopolitical policy spheres. Savouring the benefits of developing digital innovation has within it the potential to make industry more efficient, reducing its environmental impact and creating a more relevant, skilled workforce in the process.
Resilience dashboards monitoring progress are useful in designing future- proof policies and legislation, taking into account specificities of member states without reinventing the wheel, by essentially drawing upon existing sectoral indicators and monitoring tools.
This is a major cultural shift which is future-fit and resilient, one that systematically explores, anticipates, innovates and prepares, rather than constantly reacts to evolving challenges. Resorting to strategic foresight means placing the long-term vision in our short-term agenda. It is also not only about how the EU institutions approach this.
All governments need to do more in order to build greater anticipatory capacity and institutionalise the use of strategic foresight.
Stefan Zrinzo Azzopardi, parliamentary secretary for EU Funds.