Last year was dominated by political scandals, two devastating wars, record-breaking heatwaves and unprecedented inflation. So, what lies ahead for the next 12 months? Seven experts on a range of subjects share their predictions with Giulia Magri.

Politics prediction: A low MEP election turnout, with the government losing votes

George Vital Zammit, academic and public lecturer.

The Economist reported that 2024 will be the biggest election year in history, with more than 70 countries holding elections this year. As member states in the European Union gear up to renew their European Parliament, voter turnout will once again be the main concern, as people shun the importance of the occasion and stay away.

The ‘Lowell factor’ in Malta is now an omen synonymous with resentment towards foreigners and the probability that the flames of such rhetoric will be fanned is high. It is unlikely any third party or independent candidate will make enough inroads to be elected but people in Malta might be ready to sow the seeds for anti-politics or, rather, join a global pattern of disenfranchise from mainstream politics.

The government is expected to lose votes in MEP and local council elections  but the opposition should gain. Surveys in the past decade have consistently shown that Malta has no volatility about corruption and maladministration. Scandal-ridden Labour kept winning elections with one landslide after another. It is unlikely this will stop until the PN is seen as a real alternative government. If the PN is unable to close the margin further (the third seat is not enough), the party will be constrained to make the umpteenth reality check on its leadership.

This year will also see the election of the new president of the republic, a maturity test for national politics. The new two-thirds format will require dialogue and compromise but the government might consider the changing landscape of Maltese society and accept a candidate that does not emanate from the traditional duopoly. In the absence of agreement, one should not discard the possibility of electing Acting President Frank Bezzina. One of Malta’s finest minds, an excellent academic with no political baggage, he would preserve and protect not only our constitution but uphold the respect and dignity of the office.

Transport prediction: Traffic situation will remain as bad as 2023

Maria Attard, director of the Institute for Climate Change and Sustainable Development.

Traffic always makes the headlines in a car-dependent society like ours. We must keep in mind that we reap what we sow. We have and continue to invest heavily in the most inefficient mode of transport: the car.

The lack of initiatives targeted at effective modal shift in 2023 will mean that nothing will improve in 2024. The situation will be as bad. It takes time, strong political leadership and commitment to move away from traffic and its negative impacts on our health, environment and communities.

We have an absurd number of vehicles on the islands, showing no signs of slowing down or reducing. We have widened roads to allow for this capacity to increase, we continue to further reduce space for people so we can park more cars and then we have rapid population growth and less and less land use and transport planning. The infrastructure is already at capacity in most places within the urban area, affecting thousands of commuters who are forced into their cars due to a lack of effective and efficient alternatives.

We need to reverse this and 2024 is a good candidate year for this to happen. I understand the fear of imposing financial disincentives but there are also a lot of low-hanging fruits we could pick first to start the change. A national pavement programme to build safe, connected and pleasant walking environments. Connected cycle paths for those who can and want to use their bicycles. Priority to the bus in busy corridor sections. We start with these and I can already predict major changes in 2025.

Economy prediction: A plan to phase out Malta’s energy subsidies

JP Fabri, co-founding partner, Seed Consultancy.

The Ukrainian and Israeli wars have persisted far longer than initial expectations and their pressures are set to continue in 2024. Their impact on global oil prices, especially the Middle Eastern conflict, remains a threat to the sustainability of Malta’s energy subsidies. To this end, a plan to phase them out needs to be devised but one which does not shock the economy and which needs to act as an incentive for consumers to transition to renewable energy.

Accelerating decarbonisation and boosting investments in renewables will help strengthen Malta’s resilience to energy shocks and its competitiveness. Considering flagging productivity and looming structural capacity constraints, there is a need to refocus Malta’s economic development strategy.

Key themes should include analysing gaps in the needed labour force and skills to achieve sustainable long-term growth; and immigration policies to ensure there is the right supply of skills needed to meet demand. Here, implementation of the various measures recommended by the National Employment Policy should be a priority for 2024 as Malta’s competitiveness hinges on the availability of talent.

Environment: Little of the trumpeted transformation

Alex Torpiano, architect, academic and president of Din l-Art Ħelwa.

Although the political world has finally discovered that the environment is an important demand by an increasing proportion of the population, there is still very little connection with the corollary that this requires less building, more planning and less permit-processing. We need fewer promises of greening areas that are already green and more greening of urban areas.

The stranglehold of the construction and real estate industry on the local economy – and the failure of politicians to come up with a different economic model to wean us off such a major component of our economy – implies that we will see very little of the transformation of Malta that many people aspire to.

Even in tourism, with all the talk of a gradual change to a more sophisticated tourism product, all our actions are in the direction of mass tourism, with the breaking of “numbers” records continuing to be trumpeted as a major achievement.

Migration: A start to integration that won’t go far enough

Maria Pisani, academic and director of Integra Foundation.

There is no doubt that our society is experiencing a rupture with the past and our communities are, in many ways, unrecognisable. Collective memories are being erased and uprooted, our present is often unfamiliar and the future, particularly for our youth and migrants, is insecure.

This year, we should see the launch of the second National Integration Policy and Action Plan and I believe it will, in principle, at least, start to respond to some of these concerns and attempt to harness the potential that this new diversity has to offer. I hope it will make everyone feel safer and more secure.

I also predict that it will not go far enough in addressing root problems, including labour exploitation and broader economic inequalities and will offer very little in terms of long-term structural changes that might lead to political, economic and social inclusion.

As predicted, 2023 saw no change in the ongoing violations of refugees and their basic human rights and I predict that the 2024 report, by the delegation of the Council of Europe’s Committee for the Prevention of Torture and Inhuman or Degrading

Treatment or Punishment, on their visit towards the end of last year will, once again, be a shameful indictment of the inhumane conditions migrants and refugees are forced to endure in Malta’s detention facilities.

It would also be fair to say that I was both gutted and disgusted by the attorney general’s decision on the El Hiblu 3 case. Rather than bringing an end to this tortuous and unjust process, the AG took the route of inaction, essentially allowing for the case to proceed to trial, a cowardly and cruel strategy by any measure.

I predict that the charges will be dismissed but when? We don’t know how long this ridiculous and painful farce is to go on for.

Construction prediction: A renewal of the sector

David Xuereb, architect and chairman of MCESD.

In 2024, the construction industry will certainly be reflecting on the consensus that there needs to be a serious uplift to its performance, not least underpinned by the much-anticipated outcome of the national inquiry to investigate industry shortfalls after the death of Jean Paul Sofia on a construction site in Corradino. 

This tragedy has brought about a dire expectation for a renewal of the industry. It is expected that coordination of existing and proposed laws and regulations, together with the resourcing and collaboration of regulatory frameworks, will become the priority in 2024 while enforcement actions will be more visible. This expectation can only be brought about with serious investment in digitalisation.

The licensing of contractors is one step of a number that is expected to uplift quality in the industry.

Quality in construction is often mentioned but normally simplistically limited to concrete grade or type of finishes. I hope there will be serious reflection on what it will take to improve customer expectations and contemporary living standards. This is expected to be brought about by clear and ambitious building standards and gradual investment in improved middle management of our building contracting community.

Women’s Issues: More change, with women at the helm

Marceline Naudi, academic and lecturer.

We have had some improvements over 2023. We have been told that 70 per cent of the recommendations made in an inquiry following our last femicide have been implemented; however, we are still not seeing the change we need, on the ground.

For example, notwithstanding an extra magistrate being allocated to cases of domestic violence, delays are still much too long. Notwithstanding an increase in resources in the police force and training, the promised gender-based violence hub in Santa Lucia is still not there – we were told it would be open by the end of 2023, with another one in the north opening early in 2024. They have started operating MARAM (Multi-Agency Risk Assessment Meeting) but NGO service providers, which are often closest to the survivors of domestic violence, are not included in the deliberations.

So, on to my predictions. I would like to think, to hope, that, with young women now at the helm of various bodies, we will see more and improved change in 2024. But they, too, need to be given the resources and the support to make things happen as they should.