In 2007, Guernsey moved to introduce a population cap and amid considerable controversy, the island’s parliament had voted to keep the population at its current level of around 60,000.

In January of 2013, a year after the Channel Island of Jersey had recorded a population of around 98,000, politicians started considering a population cap amidst concerns that the island’s population could reach 120,000 by 2035. By the end of 2019, Jersey’s resident population was 107,800 with the population dropping down to 103,100 by the end of 2021.

On the other hand, an article published last June noted how according to a government report, Jersey would need a population of around 150,000 by 2040 to make sure that living standards do not drop, a report that had outlined the challenges of both an ageing population and fewer young people working on the island to support the economy.

“Population caps worry me and are to be considered only as a last resort,” says economist Gordon Cordina.

“The risk of capping would be that gaps would be filled by low productivity and low quality activities. It is only after having managed to achieve quality lifestyles and high value-added, sustainable economic activity that prioritizes ESG, a certain size and quality of the population and workforce that we can then possibly apply a cap on population. This would help ensure that the expected results are not unravelled by excessive population growth.”

Cordina referred to how this lies in contrast with the low fertility rate in Malta where more work commitments, rising costs of raising a family, including housing and living costs are leading people to postpone, reduce the number or altogether rescind having children.

“A persistence of such situation is bound to create issues with future pension sustainability and the need for more foreign workers. As such, this situation could be reversed if women continue to be more empowered and if men shift to family-friendly cultures and ways of working. This will not only require incomes to rise at a faster pace than costs of living but also a shift in values, away from excessive consumerism towards more family-oriented life goals,” he added.

“Having said that, faced with the reality that more youths might leave Malta, it is essential for the country to ensure it becomes a congenial place where youth can learn, develop culture, work and have a good quality of life by measuring the wellbeing and quality of life of youth in Malta, rather than gauging their propensity to leave,” added Cordina.

Reuben Fenech, an implementation consultant in financial services and public sector matters, and a non-executive director of Air Malta, who also served as Director General of the National Statistics Office between 2015 and 2018, explains that whilst economic activity is predominantly higher in densely populated regions, there is widespread anecdotal evidence that Malta has reached a stage where more is likely to give us less.”

“There is a pressing need to look into population management by determining the country’s carrying capacity. In other words what population can be sustained without erosion in the quality of life. Having said that, imposing limits on certain occupations would well not necessarily lead us to achieve an optimal standard of living. We will first need to establish the level of economic growth that Malta can sustain before it ceases to be a good place to live.”

An equation-driven approach

Cordina added that the relation between persons and jobs is clear but is not enough, because persons require residences, utility services, physical and mental health, education, environmental services, transport and other services.

“There needs to be an equation-driven approach to indicate how each of the dimensions of living must be developed as population is changing. Especially in a small country as Malta, we cannot rely on private market forces to achieve this. Private investment needs to be increasingly responsible to deliver the social outcomes that are impacted by it, in line with the ESG priorities currently governing business policies in the major developed countries,” he added.

Referring to the tourism sector, Reuben Fenech noted that the mantra that quality matters more than quantity has not been put into practice over the years. “Capping the number of tourists would be tough for a country heavily invested in the sector. Whatever revenue is forgone due to less tourists visiting, will need to be replenished by higher spending from those that visit the islands.”

Fenech said that a renewed vision for tourism requires steady and resilient implementation to address the status quo, which is bordering on unsustainability. Managing tourist numbers in certain ecologically sensitive areas would be a good start and may serve as a blueprint for broader-based initiatives to protect the country’s cultural, historical and environmental heritage.”

Correcting imbalance 

Fenech noted the impact of the rapid increase in Malta’s population on aspects such as air and water table quality, road congestion, biodiversity, health and social welfare systems, electricity, water and sewage networks, waste management, affordable accommodation, community facilities and education.

“The impact has been fairly evident and is bound to get more acute. Sooner rather than later Malta needs to have a benchmark of what it can sustain and then do what is necessary to correct the imbalances created over time.

Cordina echoed the same sentiments when making specific reference to the sustainability of pensions.

“Three main factors will be necessary to ensure the adequacy and sustainability of pensions namely the presence of a sufficient number of workers, the increasing productivity of these workers, which can also compensate for the lack of numbers and the diversification of income sources in old age to depend not on the public pension system, but also on private individual savings, occupational schemes and reduced but continued involvement in the world of work, to the extent possible,” said Cordina. 

“It takes several years to reverse a country’s gone headlong in one direction. We require better and more holistic planning that serves the common good at the economic sector level, not least by addressing policies fuelling the property market and mass-market tourism,” added  Fenech.

“It is therefore not a matter of imposing caps but rather of embodying a vision that politicians, entrepreneurs, and society at large buy into, in order to put Malta’s evolution back on a sustainable path,” he concluded.