Ten years since dictator Muammar Gaddafi was slain by Libyan rebels, the North African country is still struggling to emerge from the violence sparked by his overthrow.
A year-long ceasefire and a UN-led peace process have barely papered over deep divisions and upcoming elections are unlikely to resolve the crisis, analysts say.
Gaddafi ruled Libya with an iron fist for 42 years after a 1969 coup against the monarchy, portraying himself as a revolutionary, Arab and African hero while mercilessly crushing all opposition.
In 2011, he was toppled in a revolt inspired by the Arab Spring uprisings and backed by NATO.
On October 20 of that year, rebels tracked him down to his hometown Sirte, tortured him and killed him in the street, displaying his body in a market.
His death has failed to bring democracy or stability.
Instead, Libya has fractured along regional and ideological lines, with an assortment of mafia-like militias and their foreign backers vying for control of the oil-rich country.
Last October’s ceasefire was followed in March by the appointment of a unity government with a mandate to lead Libya to elections.
So with a presidential poll set for December 24 and legislative elections in January, is Libya finally turning the page on a decade of chaos?
“Relative to the past 10 years, Libya is in a much-improved situation,” Hamish Kinnear, an analyst with the research institute Verisk Maplecroft, said.
“The ceasefire agreed to in October 2020 continues to hold and the Government of National Unity is hanging on as Libya’s sole government.
“But Libya’s political stability is increasingly precarious,” Kinnear said.
“The next six months will tell us whether the quiet period that followed the October 2020 ceasefire was merely an opportunity for armed factions to lick their wounds or actual progress towards a political solution.”
Libyan academic Mahoud Khalfallah also voiced doubts that elections alone would lead to “a definitive solution” to the crisis.
“We’re in a vicious cycle because of the failure of the political process”
That would require “an end to negative foreign involvement in Libya’s internal affairs, maturity of Libyan voters in choosing who represents them, disregarding tribalism and regionalism, and all sides accepting the outcome of elections,” he said.
None of those is a given.
The road to the ballot box has been paved with bitter debates over electoral laws, notably a bill on presidential polls that appeared tailor-made for a bid by military strongman Khalifa Haftar and was passed in a move many of his opponents say bypassed due process.
A woman using a shoe to beat against a portrait of eastern Libyan strongman Khalifa Haftar covered with a red cross and a caption in Arabic below reading ‘no to the war criminal’, during a demonstration against him and in support of the UN-recognised government of national accord (GNA), in the Martyrs’ Square, Tripoli, on December 27, 2019. Photo: AFPHaftar is despised by many in western Libya, particularly after the year-long offensive by his self-styled Libyan National Army to seize Tripoli, which killed thousands of people before he was pushed back by Turkish-backed armed groups in June 2020.
The strongman’s portrait, with a vivid red cross over his face, now hangs on many official buildings.
Kinnear warned that polls based on the controversial law without wider backing from groups in the west could divide Libya once again into competing eastern and western governments.
“The risk of this would be heightened if Khalifa Haftar won the presidency, as he is a toxic figure for the armed factions that defended Tripoli during the LNA’s failed offensive,” he said.
A city name sign stands in front of war-ravaged buildings in Libya’s eastern city of Benghazi. Photo: AFPForeign officials have prioritised holding elections and turned a blind eye to irregularities around the political process, including allegations of corruption around the February election of interim Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeibah.
“We are aware that there have been irregularities, even corruption, but we still believe that the solution lies in these elections,” one European diplomat in Tripoli said.
Analyst Ahmed al-Rashrash said Libyans were “hoping these elections will lead to a better life and to political stability and security”.
But many voice doubts the process will resolve deep-seated issues.
“We’re in a vicious cycle because of the failure of the political process,” Tripoli civil servant Abdelfattah Benour said.
The situation has left some nostalgic for Gaddafi’s era.
While the leader brutally stamped out all forms of opposition during his rule, many enjoyed high living standards paid for by Libya’s vast oil wealth, with the highest GDP per capita in Africa.
That is a stark contrast to today.
A decade of conflict has ruined infrastructure and battered the economy, leaving Libya suffering chronic power cuts and runaway inflation.
That has left Libyans themselves suffering “both psychologically and economically”, Tripoli businessman Issam el-Mejri said, although he added he felt “more freedom” since Gaddafi’s fall.
Faraj Najib, who runs a small shop in the eastern city of Benghazi, said the elections were “a ray of hope for Libyans, who have been hugely impoverished” by the years of conflict.
A Libyan fighter makes the victory sign after heavy fighting in the town of Sirte, the hometown of former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, on October 11, 2011. Photo: AFP* * * * *
A decade of civil war and chaos
As Libya marks 10 years since dictator Muammar Gaddafi was ousted and killed, here is a timeline of the ensuing decade of chaos in the oil-rich North African country.
2011: Gaddafi killed
Encouraged by Arab Spring uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt, protests erupt in Libya in February 2011.
The US, France and Britain give military backing to what becomes an armed revolt.
Gaddafi, in power for 42 years, flees the capital but rebels capture and kill him on October 20.
In August 2012, the rebels hand power to a transitional authority, the General National Congress (GNC).
2012: Foreign missions targeted
US ambassador Chris Stevens and three American staff are killed in a September 11, 2012, attack on their consulate in Libya’s second city, Benghazi. An Al-Qaeda-linked jihadist group is blamed.
A car bomb in April 2013 targets France’s Tripoli embassy, wounding two French guards.Most foreign diplomats leave the country.
2014: Rival governments
Eastern strongman Khalifa Haftar launches an offensive in May 2014 against jihadist groups in Benghazi. He names his forces the Libyan National Army and several senior officers from the east join him.
Legislative polls are held in June, producing a lower house of parliament – the House of Representatives – dominated by anti-Islamists.But Islamist-led militias contest the results and storm Tripoli in August, restoring the GNC to power.
The internationally recognised House of Representatives takes refuge in the eastern city of Tobruk, where it remains to this day.Libya thus finds itself with two governments and two parliaments.
2015-16: Failed accord
In December 2015, after months of talks and international pressure, the rival parliaments sign an accord in Morocco establishing a Government of National Accord.
In March 2016, its chief, Fayez al-Sarraj, arrives in Tripoli to install the new administration but Haftar refuses to recognise it.2019: Haftar’s offensives
Haftar announces the “total liberation” of Benghazi from jihadists in July 2017, after more than three years of fighting.He is backed by neighbouring Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, later also forming links with Russia.
In January 2019, Haftar launches an offensive into oil-rich southern Libya, seizing the region’s capital, Sebha, and one of the country’s main oil fields.In April, he orders his troops to advance on Tripoli.
Foreign involvement
Russia reportedly sends mercenaries in November 2019 to help Haftar’s forces. The UN in December accuses several countries of breaching a 2011 arms embargo by supplying both camps.The following month, Turkey sends troops to help the Tripoli government.
In June, Tripoli’s forces say they have overrun Haftar’s last western stronghold.
Libyan demonstrators protesting against the deteriorating political, security and living conditions in the country during a rally in Martyrs’ Square, Tripoli, on October 2, 2020. Photo: AFP2020: Talks and ceasefire
The rival governments sign a “permanent” ceasefire agreement in October after UN-hosted talks in Geneva. The following month in Tunis they agree to hold elections in December 2021.
2021: Tensions mount again
Libyan delegates to the UN process approve a unity government headed by interim prime minister Abdulhamid Dbeibah in March, charging it with leading the country to elections.
But the UN warns in July of a “stalemate” over political and security plans and Dbeibah’s proposed budget.
In September, lower house speaker Aguila Saleh ratifies a law governing the presidential ballot that critics say bypassed due process to favour his ally, Haftar. Weeks later, the eastern-based parliament passes a no-confidence vote in the unity government.
Election wrangling
Haftar announces on September 22 that he is stepping back from the military, paving the way to his candidacy in the December ballot.
The parliament in Tobruk rubber-stamps the presidential poll for December 24 but postpones the legislative elections to January.But the postponement is rejected by the upper chamber in Tripoli.