For many, summer holidays are about bustling European cities, crowded beaches and large-scale events, such as music festivals. The cascading economic effect of summer activities is substantial. The holiday industry accounts for 10 per cent of economic output in the EU. It also employs over 10 per cent of the EU’s workers.

In a virtual press conference on Wednesday, European Commission vice president Margrethe Vestager announced guidelines that member states should consider when opening up their countries for visitors. But she ominously said: “If you travel for crowds, this will be a very difficult summer.”

The Commission is trying to balance medical best practice in epidemic management with an undeniable desire to revive the myriad of economic activities linked to tourism. The guidelines recommend a three-stage opening of frontiers with priority given to travel for personal or work reasons. Very wisely, the various commissioners who took part in the launching of the tourism guidelines emphasised that public safety was the top priority behind the drafting of these guidelines.

It has been made amply clear that ultimately it is the individual member states that have to decide which of these guidelines to follow.

While this is the way that guidelines should be implemented, it risks creating inconsistencies in their implementation by different member states and even airlines.

The director-general of IATA, the global airline trade body, described the Commission recommendations as “vague and not helpful to airlines or consumers because both need clarity”.

This comment is of particular interest to Malta, which is more dependent on air travel for its tourism industry. While certain airlines have announced that they will soon be restoring some of their scheduled flights, it remains to be seen how prospective travellers perceive the safety risk they take when they decide to travel by air.

In the last few years, Malta’s tourism industry has been successful in attracting millions of visitors partly thanks to reasonably-priced rented private accommodation and low-cost travel. In the present circumstances, these enablers have become the Achilles heel of the industry.

There is an elephant in the room in the medical and economic debate about the safety of travelling while the pandemic still rages. This relates to when consumer confidence about the safety of travelling is likely to return.

People are generally more influenced by medical advice on the risks of travelling than by the marketing rhetoric of politicians or the bargain offers by tourism operators.

The oft-repeated advice for vigilance, avoiding crowds, social distancing, and strict hygiene protocols will dampen hopes of summer holidays as usual this and possibly next year. Travel experts who spoke to the international news networks believe that the Commission’s guidelines are more likely to favour travel by car or train in mainland Europe than travel by air to island destinations.

Thierry Breton, the commissioner for the single market, was realistic when he said that: “We need to understand that the crisis is not over. We need to continue to live with the virus. This will be a summer like no other, but we hope it will be the last one.”

While we all hope that a medical solution is found sooner than is being forecast, we need to have realistic expectations on how fast the local tourism industry will recover.

This is an excellent time to revise the industry’s business model.

There are glimmers of that in the way, as we report today, luxury rental accommodation is receiving interest from grounded locals. It would, of course, be just a start.

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