Chains are as strong as their weakest links. These last two years have proven that the globalised economy’s supply chain has a few weak links that need urgent attention.

At the beginning of the pandemic, a shortage of toilet paper led to panic buying by many who may not necessarily understand how the just-in-time inventory system works.

Thanks to the promotion of free trade in the last few decades, global trade has built its critical success factor on efficient delivery of raw materials to producers and equally efficient transportation of finished products to consumers. This is a far more complex process than meets the eye of consumers.

The tensions in global trade started before the pandemic, when the US and China engaged in a tit-for-tat trade restrictions phase under Donald Trump, with the introduction of unprecedented tariffs and sanctions on Chinese companies. China retaliated, targeting US agriculture exporters.

But COVID is the leading cause behind massive dislocations in the container market, shipping routes, ports, air cargo, trucking lines, railways and even warehouses. This year, consumers and suppliers do not worry about the availability of toilet paper – it is PCs, electronics, cars, gaming consoles, appliances, gas, petrol and metal that are now in short supply. The business-focused Wall Street Journal observed that “Everywhere you look, the global supply chain is in a mess”.

Malta imports practically all that it consumes and is an exporter of services rather than goods. Like most other countries, local consumers will face difficulties procuring the goods they need because of the disruption in the logistics that underpin global trade.

Brexit has also added to the problems of some local wholesalers who have to deal with the additional bureaucracy and costs of buying goods, especially medicine, from the UK.

At least, local drivers do not need to worry unduly about whether they will have to queue for long hours to fill their fuel tanks.

Central bankers can do very little to improve the supply-side dynamics of production after a surge in consumer demand as COVID fears begin to recede. But the fear that fast-rising inflation might threaten economic recovery is a tough challenge.

European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde said that the ECB would be “very attentive” to the effects of the surge in energy prices and the production bottlenecks that are pushing prices even higher.

More hawkish economists are promoting higher interest rates to discourage further growth in consumer demand that is behind some of the logistics problems in global trade.

They also want the COVID support initiatives taken by most governments to be tapered down sooner rather than later.

For producers, wholesalers and retailers, the last two years have been a necessary learning experience. They have learned that they need to think ahead and no longer rely on just-in-time strategies to grow their business.

Contrary to what one may think, it is estimated that 92 per cent of companies did not slow down or halt technology investment because of the pandemic. They continued or increased their investment in their quest for more digitalisation.

There is no short-term silver bullet that will resolve the present supply chain crisis. We can all expect to face delays, shortages, unavailability and price increases. Tough political decisions at the international level need to ensure that global trade is built on more viable assumptions.