On that fateful morning of February 24, 2022, few would have predicted that, a year later, Ukraine would still be resisting the unlawful invasion and Russia would be still trying to make significant inroads.
Taking stock of where the world stands at this particular juncture is not so easy.
The Russian government stands discredited and largely isolated internationally. Yet, despite this isolationism, there is an awareness that it retains some measure of strength. There are multiple reasons for this.
Firstly, though there is wide acknowledgement that President Vladimir Putin and his political aims will cause instability in the West, there is no credible alternative to him. In essence, the argument for regime change is idealistic. Though unpalatable, any possible end to the war will, by default, mean that he will have to be around the discussion table.
Secondly, there has been little attempt to understand the conflict from the Russian point of view. To be sure, this is a conflict borne primarily out of geopolitical concerns. Yet, on the other hand, there are also elements of culture, history and identity issues that cannot be removed from the equation.
Thirdly, whatever step the West takes will always have to be informed by the interests of the Baltic States, Poland, Georgia and Armenia – or any other state which can be affected by any sign of weakness. Concurrently, any response must be taken without allowing the conflict to escalate further. This is not an easy balance to achieve.
Fourthly, the Russian government remains incredibly skilled at attempts to wage a disinformation war. The weaponisation of information should not be underestimated.
Meanwhile, Ukraine retains a strong position in winning the moral argument. Yet, the response to the request for assistance has had mixed reactions.
President Volodymyr Zelensky’s recent European tour is interesting regarding the choice of capitals he visited.
The first visit was to London, where the Ukrainian president thanked the British government for standing by Ukraine from the first day of the invasion. He singled out former prime minister Boris Johnson and thanked Britain for its help with arms which helped to save innocent lives.
Yet, Zelensky’s trip was not a mere courtesy visit. He went cap in hand, asking for additional help. The Speaker of the House of Commons, Sir Lindsay Hoyle, was given a Ukrainian airman’s helmet with the inscription, “We have freedom, give us wings to protect it”. The Russian Embassy in London did not react well, warning the British government that additional air assistance given to Ukraine could have global repercussions.
Meanwhile, on the first anniversary of the conflict in Ukraine, King Charles issued a statement on the war, saying the efforts to help Ukraine are “heartening” and expressing hope that “the outpouring of solidarity from across the globe may bring not only practical aid, but also strength from the knowledge that, together, we stand united”.
Zelensky was also welcomed at the European institutions in Brussels, where he made an impassioned plea for the European dimension of this war. Russia, he added, was not just after Ukraine but also after the European way of life.
The Russian government stands discredited and largely isolated internationally- André DeBattista
European Parliament President Roberta Metsola warmly welcomed the Ukrainian president, stating, “Ukraine is Europe, and your nation’s future is in the European Union”. She also made a case for the EU to provide additional military assistance.
Zelensky met other European leaders, including Olaf Scholz, Giorgia Meloni and Emmanuel Macron. These meetings were warm, but their outcome is yet to be seen. For example, while Zelensky made a case for long-range missiles and jets, Macron spoke about the post-victory reconstruction. One can detect a certain uneasiness in Berlin and Paris.
While the moral argument for Ukraine is difficult to counter, there are doubts about whether Ukraine has what it takes to join the European Union. To do so, Ukraine would need to engage in serious reforms and weed out corruption from among the government ranks.
Unsurprisingly, in the days leading up to Zelensky’s tour, several high-profile searches and arrests were made linked to corruption and embezzlement charges.
These actions in the fight against corruption helped to assuage the concerns of Ukrainian citizens and international institutions. During wartime, the Ukrainian Army must be beyond reproach to retain its citizens’ trust. Likewise, international institutions will require guarantees that their aid is not misused.
Meanwhile, a third player cannot be underestimated. China’s peace plan for Ukraine has been largely dismissed in the West. Instead, this 12-point document, released on the first anniversary of the Russian invasion, called for peace talks and the avoidance of nuclear proliferation and a nuclear crisis. At the same time, the paper seems to direct some criticism at NATO, warning against the expansion of military blocs and “fanning the flames and aggravating tensions”.
The West has been largely dismissive of this plan. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg described it as lacking credibility since Beijing did not condemn the invasion of Ukraine. Ursula von der Leyen added that China had already taken sides.
However, there have been some signs of openness to the Chinese plan. The Ukrainian government welcomed the plan while signifying that it hoped Beijing would use its clout to urge Moscow to withdraw its troops. The Ukrainian president also wished to meet his Chinese counterpart to discuss a “just peace”.
Emmanuel Macron also signalled that he intends to visit China in April and continued to urge Beijing to pressure Russia into ending the war and not to supply any arms. There is, perhaps, a growing realisation that a broader openness to dialogue is required.
Meanwhile, however, Ukraine continues to be under enormous pressure. Its resistance comes at a high human cost. This is, after all, not a mere geopolitical game but a humanitarian tragedy.
André DeBattista is a political writer and academic.