Almost forty-five years ago, Scottish political analyst and essayist Tom Nairn published a much-debated book, The Break-up of Britain, which predicted that civic nationalism would lead to the demise of the UK in its familiar historical form.
His central argument was then described by many, frequently hysterical reviewers as ‘inconceivable’, almost ‘impossible’.
Since then, the UK has undergone dramatic change while superficially seeming to remain the same in both form and appearance. Economic and social change as well as the continued withering of Empire has resulted in increasingly bitter, divided and self-obsessed countries.
Devolution to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland in addition to a restoration of London governance is now well-established and widely accepted. Alongside the rise of popular nationalism in the peripheries, we have also witnessed the creation and promotion of a renewed English nationalism characterised by a selective ‘go it alone’ mentality.
The highly damaging and contradictory Brexit project has perhaps reflected this reality better than anything else. The much-vaunted ‘precious, precious union’ as described by Theresa May now faces being undermined by the flag-waving unionism of English nationalist politicians advocating an England first ideology.
In the new ‘Team UK’ iteration proposed by Boris Johnson, one of the key characteristics of the Union is to be set aside as political expediency requires. That principle – a union based on trust, partnership and consent – is deemed defunct. Team UK will essentially represent an increasingly narrow concept of ‘greater Englandism’ where the interests and agendas of other Union partners are deemed to be of secondary importance.
If Scotland doesn’t like it, it can be overruled; if Northern Ireland doesn’t like it, it can ultimately be thrown under the bus. For now, Wales can be ‘managed’. The post-Brexit redesign of the British state is to be characterised by a past its sell-by-date model of English sovereignty.
The Britain that many of us grew up with and in important ways admired for its diversity, culture and modernity (despite the dismal record in Northern Ireland) is to be consigned to history’s bin.
It seems that Nairn’s assessment was not just accurate but highly prescient. The reconfiguration of the UK is now a fully-fledged official project albeit wrapped in traditional colours.
Within this new configuration for Global Britain what now is the place and future of Northern Ireland? In the fundamentalist binary world of Brexit where subtlety and complexity have been entirely stripped away, what is the status of the options offered as part of the peace process? As a result of the Good Friday Agreement, people in Northern Ireland could choose to be British, Irish, both or ‘other’.
The new ‘English’ edition of ‘national’ identity amounts to a seriously retrograde development, one that threatens not just peace but the entire future of Northern Ireland itself.
Along with the cavalier, often reckless approach of Boris Johnson and his cabinet, the removal of a potential European identity compounds the situation further. The conflicts and confusions surrounding the Northern Ireland Protocol attest to the ignorance of all too many English commentators, politicians and administrators.
There had been little interest or acceptance on the part of the British government that Brexit has been highly problematic for both parts of Ireland and even for Britain itself. This bodes ill for the future.
A recent Oxford University report suggests that Brexit has ‘laid waste’ to the delicate constitutional balance which has underpinned the UK to date and by extension relations between Britain and The Republic. It has emphasised that the union is no longer based on consent, but on contested legalities.
It is now inevitable that UK governments will link Scotland and Northern Ireland when it comes to issues such as referenda, borders and relations with the EU and the wider world. They will be reluctant to move on these issues in one country because of their resonance for events in the other.
If a border poll is called in Northern Ireland (an increasingly likely future event) the Good Friday Agreement places a legal obligation on the British and Irish governments to recognise ‘that it is for the people of the island of Ireland alone, by agreement between the two parts respectively and without external impediment to exercise their right of self-determination’.
Adherence to this legal obligation is now increasingly unlikely with potentially dangerous consequences for a hard-won peace.