The prime minister’s announcement last week that Malta would be ending its state of medical emergency, de facto removing any executive power the Superintendent of Public Health had to mitigate the COVID-19 crisis, was viewed by some with relief but by others with caution.
The situation is not helped by the sometimes very obvious difference in opinion and public statements, throughout the crisis, between the health authorities on one side and the prime minister on the other.
This has been going on up until last week. While Robert Abela tells people to get on with their lives and that all restrictions to crowd numbers must go, the health department advises the continued suppression of feasts and wedding ceremonies.
New case numbers continue to be very low and victory has been declared over COVID-19. But it is very evident that the virus is not a vanquished enemy, rather one that is ready to stage an ambush at any time. The experience in some of the other countries that have opened up is testimony to that.
The world, from which Malta will no longer be insulated come July 1, is experiencing a rise in cases – now by over 150,000 every day – not a decline. The World Health Organisation has only just issued a stark warning: the pandemic is accelerating and is entering a “new and dangerous phase”.
And herein lies the crux of the matter. What happens if we are exposed to a second major wave of COVID-19? There are four fundamental questions that must be asked.
Firstly, will it be worse? The simple answer is that we do not yet know. Influenza epidemics (a different family of viruses) show that it is often the case, but this is a new virus and its future behaviour is an unknown factor. We cannot rely on a vaccine to help us until a reliable one is readily available.
Secondly, will we be able to handle it? Well, the health authorities in June 2020 are far better equipped for what may come in the future than six months ago. They have more equipment, more beds, more experience in monitoring and containing any spread, and a lot more medical knowledge on how to best treat the seriously ill. All that is a definite plus.
Thirdly, would the government reverse its decision to remove emergency measures? It would be surprising if it did. Abela’s very public statements pushing for opening up and the government’s cosying up to the business lobby make it seem very unlikely, despite unconvincing warnings to the contrary. The need to instil a feel-good factor to keep people’s minds off the very real political crisis the government is beginning to face, through revelations in court and in the media, make the possibly of the health department’s counsel prevailing in such a situation even more remote.
Finally, would our economy survive a second wave? Not easily. Many businesses would probably go under. Ironically, by opening up in order to help the local entertainment, leisure and tourist industry in the short term, this already struggling segment of our economy may have been exposed to increased risk of damage in the future should COVID-19 return.
The countries now rushing to open up – indeed most of our European neighbours – have decided to take a gamble as their economies come under tremendous strain. It is imperative that in Malta, all eyes are wide open to the attendant health risks and that there will be no hesitation about springing back into action should the virus strike again.