Every country can choose its friends but no one can determine its neighbours.
Malta’s proximity to Libya exposes us to the increasingly volatile political situation in our neighbouring country. The rumblings of war in Libya are growing louder and this is not good news for Malta or, indeed, for the European Union.
Libya has suffered political instability and periods of civil war for a decade since the 2011 revolt that toppled dictator Muammar Gaddafi. For a few weeks now, the country has had two governments.
One is led by Fathi Bashagha, in Tobruk, who was selected as prime minister-designate by the House of Representatives based in the east of the country; and the other is headed by Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, based in Tripoli, who was chosen, following UN-sponsored peace talks last year, to serve as interim prime minister until the elections.
But nobody is quite sure what is happening in Libya. The risk of violence and another civil war on the southern border of the EU is the last thing European leaders need when they have their hands full with the war in Ukraine on their eastern borders.
Foreign Minister Evarist Bartolo told Times of Malta that “a new conflict in Libya is bad for Libya, Europe and Africa as Libya connects the Sahel to the Mediterranean”. Stephanie Williams, an adviser to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, said in a tweet that “the solution to Libya’s crisis does not lie in forming rival administrations and perennial transitions”.
Politicians and advisers tend to resort to stating the obvious when they have no real solution to an emerging crisis.
In an interview with the Financial Times, Bashagha said he planned to move to Tripoli in the most “peaceful way possible”, insisting that his government would not be involved in “any violence or conflict”. He added: “We will be arriving in Tripoli in the next few days and there will not be another parallel government.”
Rival politicians in Libya have made too many promises of civil behaviour for anyone to rely too much on Bashagha’s commitment.
Only countries with political clout can do something to allay the spectre of war in Libya. Bashagha pulled back forces loyal to him from Tripoli to de-escalate the situation after pressure from Turkey and the US in the last few days. The UN is again trying to mediate between the rival factions.
Williams appealed to the two factions to convene “under the auspices of the UN to work for two weeks to achieve the goal of developing a consensual constitutional solution”.
All hopes of a peaceful solution to the Libya crisis rest primarily on whether planned elections in June will indeed be held. A joint statement by the US, the UK, France, Germany and Italy called on “all actors in Libya to refrain from actions that could undermine stability”. They appealed to the rival parliaments to fully cooperate with the UN’s efforts.
They proposed to establish “a consensual constitutional basis that would lead to national elections as soon as possible”.
European politics are experiencing tectonic shifts due to the incredibly high stakes that have to be confronted to the east. While dealing with the consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine is the EU’s top priority, the dangers emanating from the Union’s unstable southern borders must not be ignored.
The potential of increased migration from North Africa and of disruption in oil supplies from Libya – which are now needed more than ever – are among the primary reasons why the EU needs to invest in North Africa’s political stability.