The UK variant of COVID-19 has been found to be significantly more deadly as well as more contagious. These findings have strong implications for Malta, as the UK variant currently accounts for 75 per cent of local cases and our sixth ITU has recently opened due to an ever-increasing caseload.

Two studies recently published in the British Medical Journal and Nature have placed the UK variant around 60 per cent more deadly than previous dominant variants. These studies reached the same conclusion independently whilst using different methods, bolstering the estimate’s reliability.

The BMJ study followed patients in real-time, comparing the outcomes of over 50,000 people who tested positive for COVID-19 between last October and January within the UK. Compared participants were matched in age, sex, ethnicity, geographical location, date of sample, and other factors, increasing the accuracy of the results. The Nature study looked at static data records – analysing over a million COVID-19 results and associated deaths that occurred between last September and February.

Both studies looked mainly at low-risk patients. How this translates to those at higher risk remains to be seen. The reason behind this increase in deadliness is also still unknown, but it is thought that this links back to the genetic mutations that have also made it more contagious. Current estimates place the UK variant as 50 per cent more contagious than previous strains.

The variant has 23 mutations from the original virus discovered in Wuhan. Many of these mutations are on the virus’ spike protein, the part that first attaches to a human cell. As a result, the spike has become stickier, making it easier for the virus to invade a human host. The variant also leads to a higher viral load – a greater amount of virus particles in one person’s body. This could make it harder for the body to defend against, as well as increase the virus’ chance of spreading out to another person in a sneeze or cough.

In Malta, this increased transmissibility is evident. Cases recently skyrocketed and it only took a couple of months for the UK variant to become the dominant strain in our community.

So far, at least, there’s been no such rise in death rates. However, the studies’ findings imply that this will change if the UK variant continues to circulate. With Malta’s current death rate standing at 13 per 1000 cases, a 60% increase would mean a jump to 21 deaths per 1000 cases. 

At a time when the country is experiencing growing COVID fatigue, we’re now dealing with a trickier foe than its predecessor. This is not last year’s COVID-19, and the virus isn't done changing.  Besides other circulating variants, there are emerging indications that the UK variant is already evolving to further escape our immune defences.

According to Leon Danon, one of the BMJ study’s lead researchers, “SARS-CoV-2 appears able to mutate quickly, and there is a real concern that other variants will arise with resistance to rapidly rolled out vaccines”.  We’re in a race against this everchanging virus – we need to snuff it out through a concerted effort before it escapes our vaccines.

Sign up to our free newsletters

Get the best updates straight to your inbox:
Please select at least one mailing list.

You can unsubscribe at any time by clicking the link in the footer of our emails. We use Mailchimp as our marketing platform. By subscribing, you acknowledge that your information will be transferred to Mailchimp for processing.