I visited Turkey from May 11 to 16 to be on the ground with the European Greens for what many political analysts call “the most important elections of 2023”.

This is due to many factors, including President Erdoğan’s 20-year autocratic rule in the country, the deadly impact of the recent earthquakes, and rising inflation. It is also because the opposition is more organised than ever before. 

While this has been the best challenge in a long time, Erdoğan and his Justice and Development Party, the AKP, have somehow managed to maintain their dominance.

While his parliamentary majority has been confirmed, Erdoğan’s 49.5% in the first round of presidential elections was not enough to avoid a second round, and he will go head-to-head with social democrat Kılıçdaroğlu from the Republican People’s Party, the CHP on May 28.

Erdoğan and his allies, the far-right Nationalist Movement Party, MHP, operate through the systemic silencing of dissent. During this election they falsely registered around 5000 of Yeşil Sol Parti (YSP) members as electoral officials, which resulted in them being unable to vote; arbitrarily detained hundreds of those involved in YSP’s campaigns in the Kurdish region; and nominated MHP members as vote observers from the opposition, so as to sign off votes to their own party without any resistance at the counting stations. 

When I met up with a family friend on my first night, I told her I was there by invitation of Yeşil Sol Parti (YSP), the Green Left. “Yeşil Sol?”, she was surprised. Until a few months ago, they were not expected to make gains in the elections.

The party, a member of the European Greens, was acting as a shelter for HDP - The People’s Democratic Party. The HDP has been under constant attack by the government as they represent the Kurdish minority, around 15-20% of the population. An ongoing court case made them fear they might not be able to run their own lists, so they allied with YSP and ran a successful campaign under this banner, electing 63 members of parliament, 31 of whom are women.

The day I arrived in Istanbul, a poll by Konda, considered one of the most reliable, put Kılıçdaroğlu at 49%. For two days a first-round win felt almost tangible. It was in this atmosphere that I met with Ahmet Asena, one of our hosts and International Secretary of YSP. 

If Kılıçdaroğlu wins, Asena hopes that one of his first actions will be to apply a European Court of Human Rights ruling and free Selahattin Demirtaş, the former leader of HDP who has been imprisoned for his political work since 2016.

Asena wishes to also see a united green political movement - by this he is referring to another, newer and smaller Green party - Yeşiller Partisi, the Greens. They have been waiting to be recognised as a political party in Turkey for over two years, so their two candidates could not run under their own banner. If Erdoğan continues his 20-year authoritarian rule after May 28, the Greens' chances of being recognised are slim. 

Supporters at a final rally of the Yeşil Sol Parti final rally, separated from the stage by police barriers. Photo: Mina Tolu

Many of the local activists I met confirmed that the rhetoric against the LGBT community was particularly harsh during these elections. Along with the Kurdish community, they were Erdoğan’s main target of hate. SPoD, an NGO that works for LGBTI rights in Turkey, worked hard to mobilise LGBTI voters and to ask candidates to support an LGBTI manifesto. When we met, they told me that their issues are hardly brought up in party manifestos, and politicians seem to fear speaking up for this community.

I also met with Zeynep Esmeray Özadikti, a trans candidate and activist who failed to get a seat in Istanbul. She knew that she was putting herself at risk when standing for elections, but she needed to be a voice for the trans community that faces a lot of violence across the country.

Anyone under 20 in Turkey has only experienced AKP rule, and many of the young people I met expressed the same sentiment - they had wasted their youth in the country. Fighting for democracy, LGBTI rights, and freedom.

A young man whose father had spent six months in detention for his political work mentioned that fact nonchalantly, as if it were the most normal thing ever. Unfortunately, for many of the people working in the progressive political spaces, especially those supporting the Kurdish minority, it is the norm. 

I spent the eve of the election at election rallies of YSP and the Greens. I danced and cheered with thousands of people at the YSP’s final election rally in Istanbul, then I joined the Greens candidate Koray Doğan Urbarlı, distributing flyers in one of Istanbul’s central parks. All this while Erdoğan’s final political message was broadcast on 29 channels simultaneously, and Kılıçdaroğlu’s on one. It is blatantly clear that the odds are not in the opposition’s favour. Despite this, there was hope in the air.

On Sunday, voting day, I visited Bursa, the fourth-largest city in Turkey. In the past the HDP had managed to elect one member of parliament, but Bursa was split into two districts in 2015, dividing the Kurdish vote and reducing their chances of achieving electoral victory again.

We visited two schools where voting takes place. The atmosphere was calm, despite the many queues - a striking difference from voting stations in eastern Turkey, where military presence was used to intimidate voters, many of them Kurdish.

Mina Tolu was in Turkey with a European Greens delegation.

If Erdoğan wins the second round, many young people and members of the LGBTQI community will probably choose to leave the country. There is only so much they can take. The opposition showed its resilience in the first round, and I hope they can overcome everything that is thrown at them before the second round of presidential elections.

It is going to take even more effort to maintain campaign momentum and bring a majority of voters to the polls for Kılıçdaroğlu. 

Mina Jack Tolu is a committee member of the European Green Party and EP 2024 candidate with ADPD Malta. They hold a MA in Conflict Analysis and Mediterranean Security.