Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, many European leaders have spoken in favour of putting Ukraine on a speedy path to EU accession by granting it candidate status. Last February, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed Ukraine’s application to join the European Union. Zelensky has asked the European Union to fast-track Ukraine’s membership.
The messages coming from Brussels and across the EU have been mixed. There are doubts in Paris, Berlin and other European capitals. The positions of Germany’s Olaf Scholz and France’s Emmanuel Macron are seen as critical. The latter, in a speech at the EU parliament last month, said it will take years for Ukraine to be accepted into the European Union.
Macron suggested Ukraine could join a “parallel European community” while it awaited a decision. Olha Stefanishyna, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister, said that both a candidate status and a member of a “parallel European community” would be a disappointing outcome for her country. The Ukrainians want fast-track membership.
Way back in 1994, Ukraine signed the Budapest memorandum. Under the terms of that memorandum, Kyiv agreed to renounce its nuclear arsenal and assign all nuclear warheads to Russia for decommissioning. This entitled Ukraine to join the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) as a non-nuclear state. At the 2008 NATO Bucharest summit, Ukraine expressed its aspirations for NATO membership. These are cited by Ukrainian leaders as tangible efforts by Kyiv to join the EU.
Analysts opposing a fast-track membership for Ukraine argued that it would be unfair on other Balkan nations which have been waiting for years to become members. Others said that Ukraine’s EU membership could antagonise Russian President Vladimir Putin. Since the start of the war, aside from Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova too have applied for EU membership, seeing membership as vital for their independence and security.
An uncompromising ‘no’ on EU candidacy status to these eastern European countries would send the wrong signal to their people faced with (and in Ukraine’s case, experiencing first-hand) Putin’s criminal behaviour.
However, joining the European Union requires embracing and applying the full body of EU laws and regulations. Enlargement requires wide reforms by the candidate countries.
It is unlikely that Ukraine’s EU membership would occur overnight- Frank Psaila
Candidate countries must meet three conditions, known as the Copenhagen criteria: implementing the European Union’s legislative corpus; being a functioning market economy; and having democratic and stable institutions. Rule of law and a fragile judicial system remain an issue in Ukraine. In 2021, it featured 122nd among 180 countries in Transparency International ranking.
It’s been nine years since the last EU enlargement. The European Union has experienced seven waves of enlargement so far: in 1973 (Ireland, Denmark, United Kingdom), 1981 (Greece), 1986 (Portugal, Spain), 1995 (Finland, Austria, Sweden), 2004 (Malta, Czech Republic, Estonia, Cyprus, Latvia, Hungary, Lithuania, Poland, Slovenia, Slovakia), 2007 (Romania, Bulgaria) and 2013 (Croatia, the last to join, waited 10 years for membership).
Criticism is often levelled at the European Union’s enlargement policy for being too technocratic, creating membership fatigue within candidate countries, leading to a weaker political momentum to adopt domestic reforms necessary for membership.
Ukraine’s EU membership, given the circumstances, it being a victim of aggression by Russia, is intended to deliver a robust political message to the Ukrainian people as they fight for values that underline the EU. However, it is unlikely that Ukraine’s accession to the European Union will occur overnight. Fast-track candidacy may be given to Ukraine, however, fast-track candidacy does not mean fast-track membership.
In the meantime, the EU should step up its efforts to help the Ukrainian authorities and people. Important steps have been taken in this regard, including humanitarian support and military aid, temporary protection status to Ukrainians fleeing the war and the availability of the Erasmus+ programme to Ukrainian students.
Once the war is over, the next challenge would be rebuilding Ukraine, with the EU expected to play a key role in this regard. This would then be followed by deep reforms of the Ukrainian institutions, judicial reform, and the rule of law, with the technical and financial assistance of the EU.
Macron’s ‘political community’ proposal, which would include EU and non-EU countries cooperating on key areas such as security, energy and investment without substituting EU membership, might be another ‘short-term’ option for Kyiv, happening in parallel with the EU accession process, although the Ukrainian authorities insist that the only viable option is membership.
The Ukrainians overwhelmingly support EU membership. A survey conducted by Rating Group in March 2022 showed that support among Ukrainians to join the EU jumped to 91 per cent, up from 61 per cent in December (Bloomberg, June 2022).
Whether it will be a long and arduous road for Ukraine to join the EU remains to be seen. In the meantime, in Kyiv, it’s a daily struggle of broken dreams and scattered lives as war continues to devastate the European nation.
Frank Psaila is a lawyer specialising in international relations.