What is happening in Russia seems to indicate that the regime led by Vladimir Putin appears to be led by other forces behind the scenes.

Putin, for example, could have sent in the army and crushed the Wagner protest or revolt, depending on which information source one listens to, yet, he did not do so. Why not?

In the past, when he was in total control of aspects of the lives of Russians, he could do as he wished. He put fear into the hearts of all who may have wanted to protest, imprisoning, poisoning, starving or cutting off their communication channels. The oligarchs, friends and supporters of Putin thrived in the growing and stable (through fear) state of affairs.

The Wagner Group was allowed to grow and to operate around the world as an extended arm of Kremlin, with its support and finance, but without any official recognition. Around the world this armed group of mercenaries did the dirty work of the Kremlin and took booty, stole diamonds, gold and other minerals, dealt in drug, arms and human trafficking and earned for themselves and for their Russian financiers a great deal of money.

This continued to increase the coffers of the oligarchs behind the throne in Moscow.

But, then, Putin overdid his hand. He tried to make himself the undeclared Czar and omnipotent autocrat by trying to extend the borders of Russia along the old Czarist and later Communist vision of a greater Russia. He attempted to occupy Ukraine and failed.

By reaching a stalemate position in eastern Ukraine and by relying on the private mercenary army of Wagner and the strong reaction from the united West, that even confiscated billions of wealth of the oligarchs abroad, he faced the disappointment, ire and fierce powers of the other two main forces in Russia: the army and the oligarchs.

The recent attempted coup that was thwarted showed the world that the army was not ready to have a civil internal war and the oligarchs did not want to disband the Wagner Group and, apparently, threatened Putin, forcing him to accept the truce provided by Alexander Lukashenko in Belarus. Putin lost face, lost the support of the army and the support of the oligarchs.

What happens next depends on how long the oligarchs accept to lose part of their wealth, especially if the West decides to increase the confiscation levels and to spend their confiscated wealth on the reconstruction of Ukraine.

That will probably be the straw that will break the camel’s back and mean the end for Putin. Who comes after him may be even worse than Putin but that remains to be seen. The army will have a big say and they prefer a totalitarian regime and a harsh one.

Let us hope for the best but prepare for the worst in Russia- John Vassallo

The oligarchs, on the other hand, would like to see the sanctions on their wealth stopped and the economy to thrive and, to obtain these goals, they would rather have a more liberal and quasi-democratic regime. This would increase trade with the West and allow technology to enter Russia and their oil and gas markets to re-enter the world market. Let us hope for the best but prepare for the worst.

Russia is far away, yet, the similarities that, by analogy, one can draw may apply to our own situation here in Malta. Luckily, our army does not involve itself in domestic politics, nor do we have armed militias, nor are we engaged in a hot war in our neighbourhood.

We do have a government that has undermined democracy. Most of our so-called independent administrative bodies that are supposed to act independently have been hijacked by the Labour government.

Wherever you turn you find decisions taken in favour of party supporters or financiers and taken without following the procedures laid down by law.

And, then, exactly like in Russia, there are the oligarchs. These are the old financially strong families with cash reserves who were looking to double, triple and multiply their wealth by finding various cows to milk. Whether in the construction industry, the air above existing houses, the seashore, the sea itself, or in the energy sector, with new contracts to friendly oligarchs in exchange for bribes and party financing.

The setting up of offshore accounts in Panama and Dubai and other tax-free regimes was not only done to cheat our tax authorities but also to receive and pay percentages on all deals.

Then we have the health and tourism sectors, with all the horrible, excessive, low-class tourists being brought here by unscrupulous oligarchs just to fill the excess of hotel space that the oligarch/political symbiosis allowed to sprout.

These and many other mini oligarchs in all sectors could only survive as long as the present economic model they had concocted ahead of the 2013 election on the fourth floor was not shaken or broken.

They sustain the present government, but for how long? Just as Putin is losing ground, so is our own Robert Abela.

Who will topple first?

John Vassallo is a former Maltese Ambassador to the EU.