The heavy rain that battered Malta in recent weeks could signal the beginning of climate change impact, but more data is needed to establish a clearer pattern, according to a meteorologist.  

October registered the highest levels of rainfall in more than a decade and half the average for November has been reached in just over a week. 

But while acknowledging that climate change is causing extreme weather events to become more common, meteorologist Patrick Zahra told Times of Malta more data is needed to establish whether this was indeed the reason behind the recent heavy rain . 

“It could certainly be the beginning of the impact of climate change, but we need to monitor the events for a few more years before saying there has been a shift. 

Similarly, in November 1999, a total of 420.3mm of rain was measured

“It is important to understand that not all meteorological events can be blamed on climate change,” Zahra said. 

Although not the norm in Malta, heavy rainfall events have occurred in the past, with some years being significantly wetter than others.  

In 1951, for instance, the figures for October were more than double those registered last month. In that year, a total 476.5mm of rain had been measured in October alone.

Similarly, in November 1999, a total of 420.3mm of rain was measured. 

The Met Office meteorologist also said it was crucial to understand what might have led to the recent heavy rainfall. Since Malta is surrounded by the sea, the amount of rainfall is also impacted by the water temperature. Higher sea temperatures in summer often result in stormier conditions later on in the year when the weather starts to cool down. 

Last August, the sea temperature reached record highs, Zahra said and so moving forward, the office would also be analysing sea temperatures closely to establish whether this was a one-off or if there is a new pattern developing. This is critical in the context of global rising sea temperatures.

In August, as Europe was in the midst of a long heatwave, Malta’s sea temperature reached unprecedented highs of over 30 degrees Celsius. “When you have such high temperatures, this will definitely impact rainfall and other weather conditions,” he said. By yesterday afternoon, the Met Office measured 52mm of rain since the start of November, almost half the monthly average. According to Zahra, although heavy rainfall was not forecast, more rain was expected in the coming days.