Independent candidate Arnold Cassola has received a bump in his polling numbers a week ahead of next Saturday’s elections which could see him nab one of Malta’s six seats at the European Parliament, according to a new Times of Malta poll.
EP president and PN MEP Roberta Metsola remains the clear frontrunner in the race, with one in every four voters listing her as their top preference.
PL MEP Alex Agius Saliba trails in second, with 21% of preferences.
Meanwhile, Cassola, whose polling numbers had hovered around 1% in previous polls, is now voters’ third choice, with just under 6% of preferences.
The number of undecided voters has dropped sharply from 41% in April to 25% today, as voters make up their minds on where to cast their vote.
PN/PL winners, as other independents falter
PN and PL hopefuls Peter Agius and Daniel Attard both see their polling numbers rise slightly to 3.5%, putting them next in line for a seat at the EP.
The other big winner is PL’s Thomas Bajada, who has seen his numbers rise from under 1% in previous polls to 3%.
Incumbent David Casa continues to poll dismally, with just 0.5% of first preferences, although he will be hoping to inherit votes from other candidates, most notably Roberta Metsola.
Other candidates from the two main parties barely register on the poll, with most of them failing to make it past the 1% mark.
Aside from Cassola, independent and third candidates also poll quite poorly.
Imperium Europa’s Norman Lowell leads the pack at 2.8%, followed by ADPD’s Sandra Gauci at 1.2%. Other candidates, including Conrad Borg Manche, James Ryder and Volt’s Matthias Iannis Portelli, all received fewer than 1% of preferences.
Ultimately, almost half (46%) of voters who plan to vote for an independent candidate say that Cassola is their choice.
Metsola dominates PN vote, PL vote spread among more candidates
The poll shows that Metsola has been more successful in solidifying her popularity within her own party. Three out of every four people who plan to vote PN say that Metsola will be their top choice, with one in ten saying that they will opt for Peter Agius.
This suggests that a second and, eventually, third PN seat could well come down to where Metsola’s inherited votes fall.
She has also had more success in attracting voters who didn’t vote in the 2022 general election, with 21% of them now saying that she is their preferred candidate, compared to Cassola’s 13% and Agius Saliba’s 10%.
But Metsola’s popularity has nonetheless seen a sharp drop amongst this group, from whom regularly obtained two-thirds of preferences in previous polls.
Labour voters are more likely to spread their vote across different candidates, although the majority (54%) say that will support Agius Saliba. Meanwhile, 9% say they want to see Daniel Attard elected, 8% will go for Thomas Bajada, and just over 3% for Clint Azzopardi Flores.
Metsola far ahead amongst young voters, Gozitans
Metsola leads the charge across most voting groups, emerging as the clear choice for people of most ages. She is twice as popular as Agius Saliba amongst voters under the age of 25 and holds narrower leads amongst voters of all other age groups.
The only exception is amongst voters between the ages of 25 and 34, where Agius Saliba holds a narrow lead. But a particularly high number of voters in this age group say they are yet to make up their mind.
Things are more balanced across Malta’s different regions, with each of the two candidates leading in three regions apiece. While Metsola holds commanding leads in Gozo, the north and northern harbour, she trails Agius Saliba in PL-leaning south-east, southern harbour and western regions.
This regional divide is also marked when it comes to Cassola, who polls far more strongly in PN-leaning regions compared to those that lean PL.