Europe is growing older, now it must grow wiser

Europe is getting older. People aren’t having as many children as before. From 6.8 million births in 1964 to 3.5 million in 2024. This often-cited fact presents a long list of real challenges for the EU.

Who will work to pay for pensions? Who will take care of the elderly? Who will innovate and create competitive businesses? The line in the graph is going down – and it looks to be inevitable. Like destiny.

As European Commissioner responsible for demography over the past seven years, I can tell you this: demographic change is already here. However, it does not need to be a predetermined destiny. No matter how complex it is, we have the policy tools to address it and turn it into a real opportunity for action.

So let me repeat it: Europe is getting older. And that can be good news. It is partly because life expectancy keeps growing. Already, children born today in Europe are expected to live past 80 years old. By 2100, women are likely to exceed 90 years old. This means more grandchildren who know and love their grandparents.

It means new markets for products that enhance their longevity. It means more people can benefit from innovations in healthcare, in technology, or financial services.

All of which means stronger economic activity – especially in the silver economy.

At the same time, the birth rate is falling across the EU. This fact presents challenges. Having fewer people in the workforce puts in question the sustainability of public budgets for essential services like health, education and pensions.

It means that we need to reassess how we fund these systems. And we must make sure any adjustments do not overburden younger generations. Young adults already face double the poverty risk compared to those nearing retirement, so any real solutions need to be based on solidarity across all generations.

Crucially, these challenges can be addressed through robust, evidence-based policy, as demonstrated in our new Demography Report, conducted by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre.

For example, healthy ageing and preventative healthcare offer advantages.

People who live healthier lives need less support, fewer resources, and will continue to contribute to their communities for longer.

This has been at the core of EU efforts to create a Health Union and beat cancer, for example. Because for every euro invested in prevention, we save 14 euros in healthcare and productivity costs down the line.

The birth rate is falling across the EU. This presents challenges

Another piece of this puzzle can be found in housing. This is a key marker of stability and wellbeing and often precedes families having children. Home ownership for 25-35-year-olds fell by 16.3% between 2007 and 2024. And the European Affordable Housing Plan, from 2025, is our first strategy to support member states tackle this.

At the same time, migration plays an important role. This can help us address specific labour market needs in the short term, while continuing to be managed responsibly and within the appropriate legal framework, but it.

The same could be said about improving labour market participation. Today roughly 20% of the EU’s working-age population is outside the labour market.

Thirty-seven million women in working age are either unemployed or inactive. More than four million people are long-term unemployed. If all member states reached Sweden’s participation rates – the highest in the EU – the adverse effect of ageing on the size of the working-age population could be almost entirely neutralised.

Already, the Demography Toolbox I put forward in 2023 provides member states with a comprehensive set of EU policy tools to address these challenges.

These are concrete solutions. But we need to make sure they are implemented. And then we should go even further.

These challenges also need careful long-term monitoring and coordination.

This is why I am in favour of setting up an effective European Agency for Demography, supporting the work of national bodies and filling the gap between data and policy.

This gap will be addressed through the European Demography Forum, which we will convene next year for the first time, bringing all relevant stakeholders together.

By keeping the facts on our side in these efforts, we can make sure that our policy responds to people’s real needs.

For those who live longer, we must make sure they have the means to lead fulfilling lives – in good health, adding value in society, even in old age. For those who are younger, we must make sure that they have the right supporting conditions to have children when they are ready to embark on this journey.

There are no shortcuts. This will be hard work. But the EU is ready to contribute – looking to our future, but acting now, in the present.

Dubravka Šuica is European Commissioner for the Mediterranean.