Malta could see the number of deaths from heat exposure skyrocket over the next century should efforts to tackle global warming prove unsuccessful, a study published in a leading science magazine has warned.

The study published in Nature magazine warned that should temperatures climb by as much as 4°C, Malta could see the number of heat-related deaths rise to 269 per 100,000 by 2095 - almost three times the rate seen at the start of the century.

Stressing Malta was the "most affected country”, the report said worst-case scenario rates of heat-related deaths in Malta were more than double the average estimated for Southern Europe.

Providing estimated per capita death rates for temperature increases of 1.5°C, 2°C, 3°C and 4°C for 30 European countries, the report said Malta was the only country to see an increase in heat deaths across all four scenarios.

In all four scenarios, Malta was shown to experience considerably more heat-related deaths than any other European country and significantly more than the European average.

Mediterranean countries, perhaps unsurprisingly, were found to be particularly affected by rising temperatures, with Eastern Spain, Southern France and Italy singled out in addition to Malta.

The report also highlighted “hotspots” of increasing temperatures elsewhere around Europe, including in Romania, Bulgaria, Austria, Southern Germany and Southern Poland.

“Unless strong mitigation and adaptation measures are implemented, most European cities should experience an increase of their temperature-related mortality burden,” the report said.

It noted that most temperature-related deaths in Europe were traditionally attributable to cold temperatures, however, with roughly ten cold-related deaths for every fatality caused by heat.

However, while some studies have suggested overall temperature-related deaths could therefore decrease in Europe with climate warming, questions over whether fewer cold-related fatalities could offset the increases in heat deaths remain, the study said.

The results of the study carried out by researchers from across Europe seem to confirm the findings of a similar analysis published in the medical journal Lancet in August, which estimated that over 1,000 people would die each year with temperature rises of 4°C, the highest per capita rate on the continent.

According to the UN, emissions cuts of 42% are needed by 2030 and 57% by 2035 for the world to be in with a chance of limiting temperature increases to 1.5°C.

Failing to hit those targets would put the world on track for rises of up to 3.1°C, bringing “debilitating impacts” to the planet, the UN said in a recent report. 

And while the organisation noted it was “technically possible” to get back on track for limiting temperature rises to 1.5°C, recent developments in the US – one of the world’s largest polluters – could suggest this is optimistic at best.

Since re-entering office earlier this month, US President Donald Trump has pulled the US out of the Paris Climate Agreement for the second time, declared an “energy emergency” to speed up federal fossil fuel development and told oil and gas companies to “drill baby drill”.