Rising temperatures would have deadlier consequences in Malta than in any other European country, as climate warming wreaks havoc on cities across Europe in the coming decades, a landmark study has projected.

The study, published on Wednesday in the medical journal Lancet, predicts changes in mortality rates across 1,300 regions and 854 cities in Europe between now and 2100, as temperatures rise and populations age.

It found that with temperatures getting 3°C warmer, Malta would suffer 95 more yearly heat-related deaths per 100,000 people than it currently does - more than any other European country and roughly six times the European average of 15 more heat-related deaths.

The study presents scenarios in which temperatures increase in line with Paris climate targets (by 1.5°C and 2°C) and others where temperatures rise in line with current climate policy predictions (by up to as much as 3°C) or where no climate policies are enacted (with temperatures soaring by as much as 4°C).

It also factors in other demographic issues like population ageing, longer life expectancy and dropping fertility rates to calculate how the rising temperatures would impact each European country.

The study’s authors estimate that 78 deaths per year in Malta were attributable to heat between 1991 and 2020.

But this would triple to 258 deaths yearly with temperatures rising by just 1.5°C and shoot up to over 600 if temperatures get 3°C warmer.

A 4°C increase would be even more catastrophic, with the sizzling heat killing over 1,000 people per year in Malta alone.

Meanwhile, cold-related deaths would also rise, albeit at a slower rate, from the current 315 per year to 440.

This means that while almost 400 deaths can be attributed to either hot or cold temperatures under current climactic conditions, this would soar to over 1,400 in total with a 4°C rise in temperature by 2100.

If, on the other hand, temperatures were to rise by 3°C, which the authors believe is entirely plausible under current climate policies, the death toll would top 1,100 per year.

Vast majority of deaths caused by the cold

Hot and cold temperatures are believed to have killed some 407,000 people per year across Europe since 1991, the vast majority of them (roughly 367,000 deaths per year) caused by the cold.

This is set to change by 2100, as temperatures rise, with heat-related deaths rising drastically while deaths caused by cold weather dip slightly.

But hot and cold weather combined could kill more than half a million people each year across Europe if temperatures get 4°C warmer.

These deaths, the authors say, could be driven by both higher average temperatures and “the proliferation of longer, more intense and more frequent extreme heat episodes”, conditions which bring about “unprecedented challenges to public health systems”.

Unsurprisingly, the authors find that rising temperatures will disproportionately impact older adults over the age of 85, many of whom are more susceptible to illness caused by excessive heat or cold.

Meanwhile, southern European countries, including Spain, Italy, Greece and Malta, will bear the brunt of the rising temperatures, with death tolls in these countries expected to be multiple times higher than those in cooler northern states.

2024 could be the hottest year on record

The study comes as climate scientists predict that 2024 could go down as the hottest year on record, with last month being the second-hottest July ever recorded, just short of temperatures recorded in July 2023.

The summer of 2023 will evoke bad memories for many across Europe, including in Malta, where intense heatwaves and lengthy power outages led to 80 excess deaths, many of them linked to heat exhaustion and dehydration, in the 10 days after July 24 alone, according to health superintendent Charmaine Gauci.

Meanwhile, wildfires raged across much of southern Europe, destroying villages and rural land across Greece, Croatia and Sicily.