Labour widens its lead over the PN to 19,600 votes: Times of Malta poll

Labour has widened its lead over the Nationalist Party to 19,600 votes, a new Times of Malta poll shows.

If an election were to be held today, Labour would secure 51.3 per cent of the vote, with the PN receiving 45 per cent of first preferences, giving Labour a 6.3 per cent lead.

Smaller parties such as Momentum and ADPD would secure the remaining 3.7 per cent of votes.

Labour has increased its support by more than one per cent since the last Times of Malta poll in October 2025, held shortly after new PN leader Alex Borg was elected. At the time, it held 50.1 per cent of the vote.

The PN, meanwhile, has retained roughly the same level of support compared to last October, with the poll showing only a marginal dip of 0.1 per cent.

Smaller parties have seen their share of the vote dip by just over one percentage point.

Nevertheless, Labour’s increase sees it gaining almost 5,000 votes since October, when the gap stood at 15,000 votes.

This month’s poll results echo those of February 2025, when a survey showed an 18,700-vote gap between the two parties.

The figures are calculated on an estimated voter turnout of 84 per cent, with 16 per cent of voters expected to stay home.

However, this figure typically narrows drastically as election day approaches and parties mobilise their voters.

When voters went to the polls for the 2022 general election, the turnout stood at 85.6 per cent.

In that election, Labour had secured over 55.1 per cent of the vote, giving it a 39,000-vote victory, far above the level of support shown in this month’s poll.

The data suggests that while PN has managed to gain some ground since 2022, when it received just 41.7 per cent of the vote, it has yet to come within touching distance of Labour.

The poll, carried out by market research firm Esprimi, asked a representative sample of 600 people over the voting age of 16 who they would vote for if an election were held tomorrow.

Responses were collected via telephone and online survey between April 9 and 16. The margin of error is four per cent.

How is the government performing?

The poll also suggests a slight uptick in how people are viewing the government’s overall performance, compared to last October.

Respondents are broadly pleased with the government’s performance, awarding it a score of 3.27 out of 5, a slight rise over October’s 3.14 score.

Over 42 per cent of voters awarded the government a score of either four or five, indicating that they are satisfied with how the government is performing. In October, this figure stood at 38 per cent, while it was below the 30 per cent mark for previous polls held in 2023.

Unsurprisingly, people’s views on the government’s performance remain highly polarised.

Those who voted PN in 2022 judge the government’s performance as overwhelmingly negative, with almost two-thirds (62.4 per cent) awarding it the lowest possible scores of one or two.

Labour voters see things quite differently.

In most previous polls throughout the legislature, fewer than half of Labour voters said they were happy with their government’s performance.

This rose sharply to 65.4 per cent in October and 77.2 per cent today, indicating that Labour is successfully bringing its disgruntled voters back into the fold as the election nears.

However, the government has yet to make any significant inroads with people who did not vote last time around, the poll suggests.

A third (36 per cent) of non-voters think the government has performed poorly, with just 16 per cent delivering a positive verdict.