The Labour Party would win 51.5% of the total vote, some 6.5% more than PN, according to a new Times of Malta poll.
The Nationalist Party stands at 45%, while the third parties would claim the remaining 3.5% of the vote.
Labour retains a comfortable lead and would win by some 18,700 votes if an election were held tomorrow.
This would indicate that both parties have gained ground since last June’s European Parliament elections, in which neither of the two parties won an absolute majority.
But pollsters say that while the gap between the parties stands at 18,700, the poll’s margin of error means the gap between PL and PN could stand at anywhere between 12,300 and 25,100.
This would put the result roughly in the ballpark of last June’s local council elections, which Labour won by some 20,000 votes.
The poll, carried out by market research firm Esprimi, surveyed 600 respondents between January 30 and February 12.
One in five wouldn’t vote
The poll finds that almost one out of every five eligible voters would abstain if an election were held tomorrow.
In the last general election in March 2022, some 14% of voters stayed home on polling day. Abstentions were even higher during last year’s EP elections in which over a quarter of voters, some 100,000 people, chose not to vote.
But pollsters warn that the number of non-voters is likely to drop as we gradually approach election season.
It is the first Times of Malta poll since the June 2024 elections that shocked pollsters across the country.
Labour reversing trend, PN making small gains
The poll’s results suggest that Labour may be reversing a gradual decline in its support, registering its highest level of support since a similar poll was held in March 2023.
Likewise, PN has continued to make marginal gains, winning its broadest support since the first Times of Malta poll back in November 2021.
Meanwhile, the poll suggests that third parties, buoyed by their strong performance in last June’s election, are struggling to make significant inroads, polling even lower than in most previous Times of Malta polls.
Government performance improves
The poll suggests that the government's performance is improving in the eyes of the public.
When asked to rank the government’s performance out of a score of 5, respondents awarded a score of 2.98, higher than in previous editions of the poll.
But views on the government’s performance unsurprisingly differ across different social and voting groups.
The government is seen to perform most strongly in traditionally Labour-leaning areas, such as the south and southern harbour, while its harshest critics can be found in PN-leaning north and northern harbour towns.
Meanwhile, Gozo hangs in the balance, with Gozitan voters scoring the government’s performance marginally below average.
And, unsurprisingly, Labour voters hold a far higher opinion of the government's performance, compared to PN voters and people who abstained in 2022.
But the government nonetheless appears to be making some inroads with PN voters, who scored the government’s performance significantly higher than they did in any previous edition of the poll.
While it was previously customary for over 80% of PN voters to score the government’s performance negatively, this is now down to 62%, with most of the remaining third scoring it a 3 out of 5.
And it also appears to be gradually winning back some of the traditional Labour Party base, with 58% of PL voters now saying that the government’s performance is either “good” or “excellent”.
This previously never topped the 50% mark whenever the same question was asked throughout 2023, although it remains far below the 80% mark registered throughout 2021 and 2022.
New voters
Labour also seems to be doing a slightly better job at attracting new voters, the poll suggests. Of the people who say they will be voting PL next election, 9% say they did not vote at all last June, with a further 5% saying they either voted for PN or for an independent candidate.
By contrast, none of the respondents who plan to vote for PN next time around say they are switching from Labour, while just under 11% say they abstained or voted for an independent candidate last year.
And both parties appear to be losing some sections of their support to voter lethargy. 13% of respondents who plan to abstain say they voted PN last June, with a further 11% saying they opted for Labour.