Labour extends lead over PN to 28,600 votes: Times of Malta poll

Labour has extended its lead over the PN to 28,600 votes, according to a new poll commissioned by Times of Malta.

The Esprimi poll shows that if an election were to be held today, Labour would secure 52.9% of the vote, while PN would receive 44% of votes, with an 8.9-point gap between the two main parties. 

Smaller parties, meanwhile, are poised to receive 3.1% of the vote.

The poll was carried out by market research experts Esprimi and commissioned by Times of Malta.

It is based on a representative sample of 600 respondents, with responses collected between May 6 and 13, during the second and third weeks of the electoral campaign.

Gap grows by 9,000 votes

The pollsters’ findings suggest that Labour has increased its share by 1.6 percentage points while PN has declined by one percentage point since a previous poll in mid-April, just ahead of the election campaign.

At the time, Labour’s lead stood at 19,600 votes, with a gap of 6.3% between the two parties. In practice, this indicates that Labour’s lead has grown by 2.6 percentage points, or 9,000 votes, over the past month.

The poll also shows the portion of non-voters shrinking to 12.1%, down from the 16% recorded a month ago. This figure includes uncollected votes, votes from those who plan not to vote, and invalid votes.

This means the figures are calculated based on an estimated turnout of 87.9%. This would mark a slight rise from the 2022 general election, when 85.6% of voters cast their ballots.

Labour up, PN down

Labour’s share of 52.9% marks its highest point since the 2022 general election, when it secured 55.1% of the vote.

In every Times of Malta poll since then, the party has fluctuated between a low of 50% in October 2023 and a high of 51.5%, recorded in February 2025.

However, Labour secured just 45.2% of voters’ preferences in the June 2024 European Parliament elections. 

The PN, meanwhile, has seen its share dip to the lowest point since July 2023, when a similar poll put it at 43.5%.

All previous polls held since the 2024 EP elections, in which it received 42% of the vote, had indicated that PN was poised to receive 45% of the vote.

Smaller parties are also struggling to make any significant gains, according to the poll, with their share of 3.1% representing a slight dip from the 3.7% recorded in April. It is also well below several previous polls that placed them around the 5% mark.

Nevertheless, smaller parties and candidates will be hoping for a repeat of the EP elections, when they won 12.7% of the total vote, driven by Arnold Cassola’s strong performance.

Rating government performance

According to the poll, the increase in support for Labour is driven by a sharp improvement in how voters rate the government’s overall performance.

Last month, voters handed an average score of 3.27 when asked to rate the government’s performance on a scale of one (terrible) to five (excellent).

At the time, that was the highest score handed down throughout the entire legislature, with the government spending much of the past four years receiving a score below three.

But this score has shot up over the past month, with voters now awarding a score of 3.62.

A third of all voters, 32%, describe the government’s performance as “excellent,” awarding it the highest possible score of five. A further 25% believe it is performing well, awarding a score of four.

On the other hand, just under one in five (19%) say the government is performing poorly, awarding it the lowest possible scores of one and two.

Similar pattern across age groups

This is broadly true among voters of all age groups.

In an October 2023 poll, half of all voters under the age of 25 were unhappy with the government’s performance. This is now down to 14%.

That same poll had found that 56% of voters aged between 35 and 44 judged the government poorly. That has now been whittled down to 20%.

Meanwhile, the government has remained popular among elderly voters, with over two-thirds of them (69%) now judging its performance positively.

Large portion of undecided in Gozo

The poll suggests that the government has increased its support across all of Malta’s regions.

Support has increased marginally in areas where Labour has historically performed strongly, such as the southern harbour towns. In these areas, roughly two-thirds of voters say the government is performing well.

However, the government has also managed to increase its support in regions where Labour is typically less popular.

In last month’s poll, just 28% of voters in the western district viewed the government’s performance positively. This has now risen to 55%, with many of those who were seemingly on the fence a month ago now moving to Labour.

The same is true in Malta’s northern towns, where government support is up from 28% a month ago to 44% today.

Labour also appears to have made inroads in Gozo, where just 6% of voters awarded the government a negative score, compared to the 54% who handed down a positive assessment.

Nevertheless, a fairly large portion of Gozitans, 39%, appear to be undecided, handing the government a neutral rating of three.

Winning over 2022 non-voters

Unsurprisingly, voters’ views on the government’s performance are largely coloured by their political affiliation.

Voters who backed Labour in the 2022 general election hold an overwhelmingly positive view of how the government is performing, awarding it an average score of 4.23, higher than at any point since these polls started being carried out.

And the government appears to have brought most of its internal dissenters back into the fold. In July 2023, one in five previous Labour voters (20%)  had a negative view of the government’s performance. Today, that figure is down to 4%.

On the other hand, those who voted PN 2022 continue to hold a negative view of the government, with an average score of 2.14, in line with several other previous polls held over the past year.

Almost two out of every three previous PN voters (64%) believe the government is performing poorly. This figure has remained stable over the past year, after dipping from a high of 85% in 2023.

Significantly, the government also appears to have won over a strong share of the electorate that did not vote in 2022.

In last month’s poll, just 16% of non-voters in 2022 viewed the government positively, with over a third (36%) saying the government’s performance was poor.

The tables appear to have turned, with 40% now saying the government is performing well, while just 16% view it negatively.