The Labour Party's lead over the Nationalists has shrunk to just over 5%, the smallest gap between the two parties since Times of Malta began its polls in 2021.
This is equivalent to around 13,500 votes, indicating that the PL's lead has shrunk by almost 10,000 votes over the past three months, and more than 26,000 since the general election last year.
The survey, carried out by market research firm Esprimi, gathered responses from 600 people between October 14 and 26. This period was marked by the court’s decision on the hospitals' appeal, which found “collusion between Steward and senior government officials”.
PL and non-voters static, PN gains
PL has retained roughly the same share of the vote it had in the previous edition of the survey, only dipping marginally from 50.3% in July to 50% today.
PN, on the other hand, registered an increase of 1.3% during this period, climbing to 44.8% of the total vote. This is the highest share of the vote that PN has registered since August 2021.
5.2% of voters intend to vote for a third party, a 1% decrease since the last survey.
Meanwhile, the share of non-voters has remained roughly the same as in all polls held since the election, at 27.8%. Researchers warn that this number is likely to reduce drastically as election season approaches.
PN gains confirm longer-term trend
A previous survey had found that the shrink in the gap between the parties was driven by Labour voters’ dissatisfaction with the government’s performance, which had doubled to reach more than 20%.
This does not appear to be the case this time around, with the number of PL voters who view the government’s performance negatively shrinking slightly to under 17%.
The survey suggests that a more important factor are the gains made by PN. Its 1.3% increase in voting share is the biggest improvement the party has made since the summer of 2021, when it had gained just over 3% between July and August.
In that case, PL had rallied to regain almost all of its lost votes just three months later, by the following November.
However, this survey appears to confirm a longer-term trend, being the third consecutive survey in which PL’s share of the vote has shrunk while that of PN has grown.
Abela more trusted than Grech
While the voting gap between PL and PN has shrunk, the opposite is true of the trust placed in the respective party leaders.
While Abela’s trust rating has improved slightly since the last edition of the survey in July, that of Grech has continued to dip.
When asked to rate their trust in each leader out of a score of 10, members of the public scored Abela a 4.57 and Grech 3.69. This means that there is a difference of 0.88 (or almost 9%) between the two leaders.
This difference stood at 0.55 in July and 1.21 in March.
How do non-voters rate government?
Non-voters represent arguably the most important voter group, with the parties' ability to secure their vote likely to be crucial in swinging an election in either direction.
This group currently stands at 27.8% of all eligible voters, although it is likely to shrink significantly once an election approaches.
People who said they would not vote if an election were held tomorrow tend to remain on the fence when judging the government's performance, with almost 42% describing it as "average".
Nonetheless, the portion who say its performance is poor hugely outnumbers those who view it positively, at 46% and 12.2% respectively
This is still an improvement over the government's performance in the previous edition of the survey, when these figures stood at 47.4% and 7.8% respectively.
Using a particular technique, Esprimi’s pre-election polls had predicted last year’s electoral result almost perfectly.