Malta’s already low fertility rate is forecast to continue shrinking, according to a major study that showed that the population of almost every country in the world will drop by the end of the century.
The study - by the US-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation - looked into the rate of children being born in 204 countries. Using global data on births, deaths and what drives fertility, the researchers tried to forecast the future for the world’s population.
The researchers found that, by 2050, the population of three-quarters of all countries – including Malta – will shrink.
For a population to continue regenerating itself, it needs a replacement-level fertility rate of 2.1 births per woman. The study shows that Malta keeps inching further and further away from that figure.
In 1950, the total fertility rate (TFR) for Malta stood at 4.04 births per woman, which dropped dramatically to 1.98 in 1980 and 1.53 in 2021. The study forecast that it will drop to 1.39 in 2050 and 1.26 in 2100.
Eurostat data published last year showed that Malta has the lowest fertility rate in Europe.
The report said future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low “even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies”.
It predicted the changes will have “far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world”.
World Health Organisation experts urged caution for the projections. They pointed out several limitations of the models, particularly a lack of data from many developing nations.
Communication about the figures “should not be sensationalised but nuanced, balancing between gloom and optimism,” the WHO experts wrote in The Lancet.
Call for better support for parents including improved leave entitlements
They also pointed out that there can be benefits of having a smaller population, such as for the environment and food security. But there are disadvantages for labour supply, social security and “nationalistic geopolitics”.
The study used a different way to calculate fertility rate than the Eurostat study, which said Malta had 1.13 live births per woman.
'Better support for parents, leave entitlements needed'
Demography expert Maya Miljanic Brinkworth said it calculated the rate of children born to women at a particular point in time, while the US study calculated the average over a longer period.
She said there were complex reasons for the low fertility rate in Malta including the “time-competing activities that the younger generations” want to pursue.
She called for better support for parents including improved leave entitlements.
“With our ever-increasing share of highly educated women, the high level of opportunity costs of maternity will eventually lead to an understandably even lower intended number of children than previously reported,” she said.
During a recent conference, economist Marie Briguglio said Malta will only be able to address its low fertility rate once it swaps the cultural norm of “killing oneself with work” with one that focuses on people’s well-being.
A study commissioned by the National Commission for the Promotion of Equality shows that more than three out of every four women who have one child do not want any more children.
The research revealed that well over half of 18- to 39-year-old men and women Malta are struggling to fulfil their family responsibilities.