The recent ill health of Pope Francis, a much beloved figure across the world, has kicked off speculation over who could take on his mantle at the helm of the Catholic Church.
And Mario Grech is among the top contenders to succeed him, according to several leading voices in the Vatican press who spoke to Times of Malta.
“He’s definitely among the top five,” Dutch Vatican correspondent Hendro Munsterman said, when asked of Grech’s chances.
“People who know Grech see him as one of the most approachable cardinals. He’s very spontaneous, very open and simple, much in the same way as Pope Francis,” Munsterman said.
Pope Francis seated next to Cardinal Mario Grech on the last day of the 16th general assembly of the synod of bishops in The Vatican last October. File photo: AFPChristopher White, Vatican correspondent for the National Catholic Reporter, agrees.
“Grech will be among the top contenders,” White said. “He is one of the most well-known cardinals across the world and he has crossed paths with many other cardinals through his work.”
But Grech is not quite the consensus pick, with some expressing doubts over whether his personality is suited for the role.
“He’s not very sparkly in terms of personality,” one journalist who spoke to Times of Malta on condition of anonymity noted. “I’m not sure he would be one of the top contenders.”
Who is Mario Grech?
Born in Qala in February 1957, the eldest of five siblings, Grech spent his early years in Kerċem, before moving on to study philosophy and theology at the Gozo Seminary in 1977.
He was ordained a priest in 1984, a few days short of his 30th birthday, by then-Gozo bishop Nikol Cauchi, the man he would eventually succeed as bishop two decades later.
Grech made his first steps in Rome shortly after he was ordained, receiving a doctorate in canon law from the Pontifical University of St Thomas Aquinas, before returning to Malta to serve in the Gozo diocese.
He was named Gozo bishop in late 2005, eventually taking office in January 2006 upon Cauchi’s retirement.
Grech would go on to earn plaudits for his handling of allegations of physical and psychological abuse of minors at the hands of Dominican nuns at Lourdes Home in Gozo, commissioning an investigation into the claims and eventually formally asking for forgiveness for the incident.
He was a prominent voice across several ethical debates that took place in Malta throughout his tenure, expressing his opposition to divorce, IVF, and the morning-after pill, and frequently calling for greater solidarity with migrants who reached Malta’s shores.
He also made waves in 2015, when he called on the Church to embrace gay and divorced couples.
Grech would give up his 13-year stewardship of the Gozo diocese to take his first steps in the Holy See in 2019, being named general secretary of the synod of bishops. In this role, Grech was the Church’s key figure in driving the synod on synodality, a process intended to reform the Church’s structures and make it more inclusive and participatory.
A year later, he was appointed cardinal by Pope Francis, automatically making him eligible for the papacy along with all other cardinals.
An unpredictable conclave
Munsterman and White both say that this is shaping up to be a conclave in which there is no clear standout favourite, with many of the cardinals having spent most of their time outside Rome, giving them little opportunity to get to know one another.
“I would find it difficult to put money on who will emerge as pope,” White says.
“I wouldn’t even bet a bottle of champagne on it,” Munsterman continues. “The field is much more open than ever before.”
And the conclave’s mind could well be swayed by public opinion, Munsterman says.
“If Pope Francis dies and cardinals see an outpouring of grief around the world, that could create a whole other dynamic, even among Pope Francis’s critics,” he says.
But it’s Grech role as the leader of the synod that gives him an edge over all other candidates, they agree.
“Pope Francis’s major legacy is his work to make the Church more synodal. Grech is in charge of that process and the synod office has been arguably the most visible office of the Vatican in recent years. If you’re a cardinal you had to interact with the synod office,” White says.
And the fact that the synod’s outcomes are still a work in progress could work in Grech’s favour, Munsterman argues.
“The conclave could decide that we need a pope to finish that work. Grech is the person who has the fullest insight into how to finish the job.”
Munsterman harks back to distant 1963 to illustrate his point. The death of pope John XXIII in the midst of the Second Vatican Council presented the papal conclave with a quandary. Should it elect a pope who will finalise the council’s work or one who would roll back the changes?
The conclave eventually chose pope Paul VI, effectively handing him the mandate to finalise the council and implement changes that would define the Church for the next half century.
And Grech would be better placed than Pope Francis himself to bring the tie off the synod’s work, Munsterman argues.
“The synod’s outcomes need to be turned into Church law. Pope Francis isn’t interested in Church law, he’s the pope who tries to change cultures, not laws. Grech, on the other hand, is a canonist, a Church law specialist.”
Vatican Secretary of State Pietro Parolin is a likely contender for the papacy, especially if the cardinals want an Italian pope. File photo: AFPGrech is the ‘continuity candidate’
Ultimately, both White and Munsterman agree that the next conclave is likely to be a “referendum on the synod”, effectively a battle between the liberal and conservative wings of the Church.
“If the cardinals decide that they want to push on with the synod’s reforms, Grech is the obvious candidate as the standard bearer of that process,” White says.
“Grech is very much a candidate of continuity, in that respect.”
Munsterman echoes these thoughts. “Grech is a continuum of Pope Francis, he’s Francis 2.0,” he says.
But that the conclave will opt to endorse the path set by Pope Francis isn’t a given, White and Munsterman warn, with a minority of the more conservative cardinals seemingly unhappy with the direction taken by the Church in recent years.
“There are parts of the Church that haven’t bought into synodality,” White says. “This would count against Grech, as they are likely to favour other candidates.”
And Munsterman points to a faction that, although not against the Church’s synodality outright, would like to slow the pace and tread more carefully.
“If moderate cardinals think that the synod is too divisive or quick, they might push for a more moderate, middle-of-the-road pope.”
68 years young
Grech’s relative youth, having just turned 68 last week, could also count against him, many agree.
“You could be looking at a 20- or 25-year papacy if Grech gets elected,” White says. “Most cardinals don’t have an appetite for giving someone a papacy for that long.”
Another top Vatican reporter who spoke to Times of Malta put it more bluntly. “Nobody wants a papacy as long as John Paul II’s.” St Pope John Paul II was elected pope in 1978 at the relatively tender age of 58, holding on the papacy until his death 26 years later.
But Grech could make a pitch for the job by knowing when to step aside, Munsterman says, pointing to the resignation of late Pope Emeritus Benedict as an instance of a pope stepping down from the role earlier than expected.
Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost, an American, is the prefect of the Dicastery for Bishops and president of the Pontifical Commission for Latin America, and is considered a reform-minded moderate who could be a compromise candidate. File photo: AFPA Maltese pope?
And the jury is still out on whether Grech being Maltese would work in his favour.
“Some might not want another European pope but Malta is not completely European in the minds of many people,” Munsterman says, pointing to Malta’s geographic and cultural position halfway between Europe and Africa.
And White says that, while most would be unlikely to want a pope that hails from a major European player such as Germany or France, “one could make a case that a European from a small country such as Malta would make a lot of sense”.
But others believe that a return to an Italian pope is the most likely scenario. “The last few papacies have not been Italian. A lot of people wouldn’t mind bringing it back to Italy,” one journalist told Times of Malta.
Several journalists pointed to Vatican Secretary of State Pietro Parolin as a likely contender for the papacy, although concerns over his health have persisted in recent years.
Other Italians, such as Matteo Zuppi and Pierbattista Pizzaballa could also see their prospects rise, although a case can also be made against either (“Zuppi is too far left, he’ll never get the conservative vote,” one journalist said).
And other candidates, such as Robert Francis Prevost, an American cardinal who cut his teeth in Latin America, could also emerge as a strong candidate, according to Munsterman.
“Prevost is underestimated,” he says. “He supports synodality but in a discrete way. If there’s a confrontation between the two wings, he could emerge as a reform minded moderate.”
But geopolitical concerns could stall Prevost’s chances, White believes.
“There’s not a strong appetite for an American pope, there’s a general consensus that America has too much power as it is.”
How is the pope elected?
The death or retirement of a pope sparks a conclave, which brings together cardinals from around the world to the Sistine Chapel, in Rome to choose the next pope.
Although there are currently 252 cardinals around the world, only cardinals under the age of 80 will be able to vote in conclave, meaning that, as things stand today, the next pope will be selected by 138 cardinals.
The new pope will need to win two-thirds of the vote to trigger the famous white smoke from the Sistine Chapel’s chimney.