Poll puts Labour ahead by around 29,000 votes

Labour is projected to be ahead of the Nationalist Party by around 29,000 votes, according to a new Sagalytics poll by Vincent Marmarà.

Pollsters say Labour is poised to capture 53.1% of the vote versus the 42.6% who will likely vote PN once undecided voters and non-respondents are factored in through a statistical model.

ADPD is projected to receive 2.3% of the vote, while other parties are projected to receive 2%.

The result gives Labour a 10.5 percentage point lead over the PN. However, Sagalytics said the gap could range between 9% and 12%, depending on different modelling scenarios for undecided voters.

The poll assumes voter turnout of around 81%.

It was carried out between April 30 and May 6, days after Robert Abela called a snap election to be held on May 30.

The results suggest Labour’s lead has remained broadly stable since Marmarà’s previous poll, published on May 1 and which put Labour ahead by around 28,000 votes. That poll had found a 10.1-point gap between the two parties, with Labour projected at 53.1% and the PN at 43.1%.

Marmarà’s latest poll suggests support for Labour has remained unchanged, with a slightly lower projected vote for the PN. However, the difference is well within the survey’s stated margin of error.

Raw figures

Before statistical modelling was applied to forecast the choices of undecided voters and non-respondents, 47.3% of respondents said they would vote Labour, 36.5% said they would vote PN, 1.7% said ADPD, 1.6% said they intended to vote for other parties and 12.9% said they were undecided.

The poll also points to a continuing turnout problem for Labour. Among people who voted Labour in 2022, 9% said they were undecided and 5.8% said they would not vote. Another 1.6% said they would switch to the PN, with a further 1% saying they will vote for ADPD or other parties. The rest – 82.6% - said they will vote Labour again.

Among respondents who voted PN in 2022, 11.3% said they were undecided and 2.7% said they would not vote. A further 2% said they would switch to Labour while 1% said they will vote for ADPD or other parties. 83% of the party’s 2022 voters said they will vote PN again.

Marmarà noted that vote-switching between the two major parties remained minimal and broadly cancelled itself out.

Abela vs Borg

Respondents were also asked which political leader they preferred as prime minister. Robert Abela led Alex Borg by 14 points, with 46.2% preferring Abela and 32.2% preferring Borg. Another 9.6% were undecided, 8% said they preferred nobody and 4% named others.

That marks a slight improvement for Abela over the previous Marmarà poll, when he led Borg by 13.6 points, with 45.6% preferring Abela and 32% preferring Borg.

The survey was based on a sample of 1,200 people aged 16 and over, contacted by telephone and mobile phone. Marmarà said the sample was matched to Malta’s demographic profile by age, district and sex and calibrated according to how respondents voted in the 2022 general election. It has a 95% confidence level and a margin of error of ±2.8 percentage points.