Marmarà poll puts Labour ahead by around 28,000 votes

A new poll by Vincent Marmarà puts the gap between the two main parties at around 10.1%, translating to a Labour lead of around 28,000 votes.

The Sagalytics poll notes that the gap could range between 9% and 11% , translating to anything between a 26,000 and 30,000-vote lead for Labour.

That calculation is based on the assumption that turnout will reach 80% on May 30, when voters go to the polls.

Marmarà’s team surveyed 1,200 people over the phone between April 23 and 29. Robert Abela called a snap election right in the middle of that period, on April 27.

The sample was calibrated to be proportionate to the general population’s age, gender and locality distribution. The poll carries a 95% confidence level with a confidence interval of ±2.8%.

Marmarà’s poll found a relatively high share of Labour voters (7.8%) who said they were unsure of how they were going to vote, with a further 6% saying they do not intend to vote at all.

An even higher share of Nationalist voters (11%) said they were unsure of who to vote for, though just 2% of people who voted PN in 2022 said they do not intend to vote.

Vote switchers between the two parties effectively cancelled themselves out, with 1.7% of Labour and PN voters saying they intend to cast their vote for the other side come May 30.

When Marmarà applied statistical tools to factor in undecided voters, the final prediction was that Labour would capture 53.1% of the vote and the PN would get 43.1% - a 10.1-point lead. ADPD is estimated to get 2%, with other parties getting 1.7% between themselves.

Marmarà’s previous poll, published on February 21, put Labour ahead by 8.6%, or anything between 25,000 and 29,000 votes.  

A poll by Esprimi for Times of Malta published on April 19 calculated that Labour was ahead by 6.3% or 19,600 votes, while a MaltaToday poll published on March 8 put the gap at just 2.6% or 7,500 votes.

In the 2022 general election, Labour won just over 55% of the vote on turnout of 85.6%, trouncing Bernard Grech’s PN which got just under 42%.

The Marmarà pollsters’ raw data, without any calculations to predict what undecided voters will do, resulted in 47.9% saying they will vote Labour, 36.9% saying they will vote PN and 2.6% saying they will vote for third parties. 12.6% told pollsters they were still undecided.

Which leader do voters prefer?

Sagalytics pollsters also asked respondents who they preferred as prime minister.

Overall, 45.6% of respondents cited Robert Abela as their favoured prime minister while 32% said they would like Alex Borg in the role. A further 10.7% were undecided, with 8% saying they preferred nobody.

The overall result – a 13.6% gap in Abela’s favour – indicates the Labour leader has strengthened trust among the electorate over the past months. In Marmarà’s previous poll, Abela led Borg by 9.7%.