Politicians in Western democracies face various crises. Besides dealing with rampant inflation, they must contend with a shrinking working-age population squeezing government budgets. Social researchers on both sides of the Atlantic analyse undecided voters’ demographics and poli­cy preferences and how they differ from committed partisan voters.

Political campaigns try to persuade undecided voters to support their side in every election cycle. Whether undecided voters are receptive to campaigns and how they end up voting – if they turn out at all – often proves crucial in deciding elections.

IPSOS polling suggests that much of the European public is increasingly not fully committed to voting in parliamentary elections. In the Spanish election in July of last year, the share of undecided voters rose from 16 per cent in 2029 to 23 per cent.

In the UK, millions of uncertain voters are set to decide the next election. According to YouGov, 17 per cent of voters still stand at the crossroads, unsure which political party to trust. Almost a third of voters support fringe parties or abstain from voting today.  Some trends are becoming more ingrained in the European political landscape. One such trend is that voters are increasingly less tethered to traditional party loyalty. Undecided voters are less engaged with politics and have more ambiguous feelings about the centre-right and centre-left traditional parties.

They also hold many different combinations of policy positions, making it hard to pinpoint what they want. The policy positions have little effect on how undecided voters feel about the parties.

Socio-political research often indicates that undecided voters tend to be younger, have lower education attainment, and have lower household incomes than partisan voters. The undecided voters have various issues they prio­ritise – immigration, the public health system, housing and, of course, the economy.

James Carville, an adviser to then US presidential candidate Bill Clinton, in 1992 coined the oft-cited comment: “It’s the economy, stupid.” Until recently, the economy was cited as the most crucial issue in deciding how to vote in practically all European elections. But recently, it has been supplanted by immigration. Ultimately, every political debate, no matter the issue, boils down to discussing how the economy would be affected. 

Another evolving trend is that undecided voters increasingly distrust politicians. In a recent IPSOS annual veracity survey in the UK, undecided voters confirmed their distrust of “pre-planned spin” and an apparent lack of authenticity among traditional politicians.

With the days of unwavering party loyalty dwindling, parties must evolve to win over undecided voters

In contrast, they welcome the opinions of genuine independent experts who are not linked to any political party. The contributions of these experts are perceived to be less biased and less agenda-driven than those of the politicians or their acolytes, being based on experience rather than political calculations.

Political infighting is another reason why undecided voters are growing in Western democracies. While party leaders often write off internal turmoil as just a facet of politi­cal democracy, many believe politicians are in politics to feather their nests and enhance their career prospects.

More voters want their leaders to engage in debates relevant to their own lives while being presented in clear language by trusted voices. In Europe, not many politicians seem to understand this prio­rity of voters.

In every election, domestic factors are behind the emergence of swing voters. In Spain, ever since voters angered by corruption split a two-party system into a four-party one in 2015, the country has been grappling with politi­cal instability, making voters more uncertain about their choices. 

Some political analysts argue that moving away from a winner-takes-all electoral system could help better engage and represent undecided voters and accommodate partisan voters with conflicting views that do not fit the two major political parties well. Still, the proportional representation system has not worked well for Italian voters, resulting in most governments since World War II not lasting much longer than a year. 

Social media and online news have fundamentally altered the way people access information and engage with political discourse, amplifying political polarisation and influencing voters’ opinions in real time.

The constant exposure to conflicting information can make it challenging for voters to commit firmly to a single political ideology or party.

Undoubtedly, more European voters are prioritising specific policy issues, such as the cost of the green transition and the erosion of their living standards over traditional party loyalty.

With the days of unwavering party loyalty dwindling, parties must evolve to win over undecided voters.

As political parties learn to navigate a more uncertain world, one thing is sure: the power of the undecided voter is redefining modern politics.