So, did it gain Momentum?

One year since Arnold Cassola and a group of activists launched their new political party to disrupt the PL-PN duopoly, Momentum has relentlessly muscled through the big party noise to pressure authorities into accountability on several issues, yet it remains firmly on the periphery of power.

A year ago, Arnold Cassola set up a new political party with the aim of shaking up Malta’s bi-party system. 

Just a few months earlier, the former Alternattiva Demokratika leader had missed out on a seat in the European Parliament, despite a strong result in the MEP election, coming in third in first preference votes. 

His 12,700-vote tally was his best result since 2004, and he used that momentum to set up the new political party, aptly called Momentum. It was launched as a “centrist party” in January, and general secretary Mark Camilleri Gambin, a tech entrepreneur with a background in software engineering, said they might form coalitions with other parties as they went along.

Although it has been run by a committee of seven people, throughout the year, the party still acted largely in the inimitable style of Cassola, relentlessly firing off statements, demanding answers on every major issue that surfaced and pressuring the authorities on everything from national planning to local grievances, ensuring the two big parties no longer have a monopoly on the daily news cycle.

Whether it is public transport bus shelters, planning law overhauls, or the transfer of Fort Tigné, the party has made it its mission to ensure that no government inaction goes without a stinging critique.

It filed several freedom of information requests on private projects and public contracts and demanded ethics probes into politicians, their worth and their dealings.

This constant pressure has forced the government onto the defensive on some occasions, most notably regarding the Ta’ Qali gravel saga.

Through an FOI request, and by calling out the “covert” night-time watering of the site, the party successfully exposed that €311,000 were spent on imported Greek gravel without a tender or environmental permits. The same information was also given to the Nationalist Party in a parliamentary question, watering down Momentum’s information triumph.

Hurdles

Commenting on too many issues could backfire as well, of course. Critics of the party argue the public may begin to tune out if every minor event is treated with the same level of outrage and protest.

They say that, given what voters looked out for in the past decade, Momentum must transition from the party that criticises every problem to the party voters believe can manage the solution.

But, unlike past third-party attempts that relied on protest alone, Momentum did launch “Vision Circles", which are grassroots policy forums that produced a detailed 17-point economic plan. Among other radical measures, they called for a €360 weekly minimum wage and a tax on vacant second properties to cool the housing market.

It also successfully joined the European Democratic Party, giving the small Maltese group a seat at the table with European centrists, with Camilleri Gambin elected as its deputy secretary general.

However, Momentum continues to face the same hurdles that crushed third parties for decades and has failed to register any significant voter support in the polls.

In Times of Malta’s latest election poll in October, all third parties – among them Momentum – registered a combined 4.8 per cent voter support. 

It was an improvement on results in a February poll, at just 3.5 per cent, but still nowhere near what they need to seriously aspire for a parliamentary seat come next election. They registered roughly the same support in the surveys carried out by Vincent Marmarà and Malta Today throughout the year.

The party also reported facing logistical hurdles. In October, it had to go to the ombudsman because Transport Malta ignored a permit request for a street banner for over two months. 

This ‘silencing through bureaucracy’, as the party called it, indicates the party lacks institutional grease that the big parties use to bypass red tape.

Maths

The uglier truth is the math.

Malta’s district-based electoral system is a graveyard for small parties. To get elected in an election in March 2027, Momentum does not simply need good ideas; it needs a mathematical miracle or a massive shift in voter behaviour.

Although Malta’s electoral system – the single transferable vote system – in principle favours electing people from different parties by cross-voting, a deeply ingrained bi-party political culture has prevented this from happening.

To set foot in parliament, a party needs to secure 16.6 per cent of number-one votes in any of the 13 districts. With the current number of registered voters, that would mean each party needs to get about 4,000 votes in one district.

For the Labour Party and the PN, getting 4,000 votes in any given district is easy but for small parties it is highly improbable. To put this into perspective, in 2022, ADPD only secured 4,747 votes nationwide.

This is why critics of the smaller parties have often said they cannot win by being everywhere. Rather, they must flood one or two specific districts (likely the 10th or 12th) where Cassola already has a strong personal following.

They must convince voters that a vote for them is not wasted but will transfer back to their preferred big party via the single transferable vote system if they are eliminated.

Also, while it is strong on social media and in statements, Momentum lacks the street-level presence, the coffee morning and home-visit culture, which wins Maltese elections.

Critics argue that if the party cannot translate its vision circles into a movement that the average worker feels will lower their electricity bill or fix their road, it risks becoming another footnote in Malta’s two-party history.