Chris Fearne has “consistently” polled at around 65% of Labour Party members throughout the leadership race making him the clear frontrunner to take over as prime minister in a fortnight.
The latest internal survey figures see Mr Fearne ahead with around 6,500 of the 10,000 PL members backing him, party sources told The Sunday Times of Malta.
Cabinet advisor Robert Abela trails behind with around 35% support, however other figures have him at 40%. The poll has a 5% margin of error.
Joseph Muscat is stepping down as prime minister ahead of his planned departure, amid the fallout of the Daphne Caruana Galizia murder probe.
The latest numbers were compiled by the PL’s chief pollster Vincent Marmara last week.
“The figures have been fairly consistent throughout the race. Fearne has between 65 and 68% of the support depending on which poll you read,” one source in the PL executive said.
Other senior party sources said that while the numbers had been fairly consistent so far, the race was far from over.
“I exclude nothing at this point. There are still two weeks left and a lot can happen in that time. No one has won yet,” they said.
The Labour Party will elect a new leader to replace Joseph Muscat on January 12.
The roughly 10,000 paid up party members will select the new leader.
According to the latest polls, based on a sample of 680 people, Mr Fearne is popular across most districts, but has the greatest support in the southern harbour area. His greatest support comes among those aged over 65. Dr Abela, polls strongest with those aged under 25, with Mr Fearne leading in all other age groups, sources said.
Chris Fearne, 56, a paediatric surgeon, is currently Deputy Prime Minister and Health Minister.
He was first elected to public office as an MP following Labour’s 2013 electoral landslide victory.
In a 2014 Cabinet reshuffle he became Health Parliamentary Secretary and eventually took over the Health Ministry in 2016, after Konrad Mizzi was stripped of ministerial duties for his role in the Panama Papers scandal.
In the summer of 2017, Mr Fearne entered the race for the deputy leadership of the Labour Party. Although then-Equality Minister Helena Dalli was touted as the party leadership’s favourite, Mr Fearne was elected Deputy Leader for Parliamentary Affairs having also beaten Finance Minister Edward Scicluna.
Mr Fearne’s Labour credentials date back to his youth, when he was an active member of the Mintoff-era Labour youth movement Għaqda Zagħzagħ Soċjalisti.
His backers in this race credit him with having steered clear of political controversy since taking up political office and paint a picture of a moderate politician with socialist views.
They also say he intends to “clean up shop” and usher in higher political standards, following the crisis surrounding the assassination of Ms Caruana Galizia.
His dissenters meanwhile say Mr Fearne may be too far a departure from the current winning electoral formula, which has handed the successive electoral victories.
Mr Fearne has largely steered away from controversy though concerns were raised on appointments to the Foundation for Medical Services.
Robert Abela, 42, a lawyer, is currently a Labour backbencher and legal consultant to Joseph Muscat.
Son of President Emeritus and former Labour deputy leader George Abela, Dr Abela was first elected to Parliament in June 2017.
He is married to Lydia Abela who currently serves as executive secretary of the Labour Party.
He hit the headlines in the build-up to the leadership race when he took to Facebook to say he was not ready to make “diabolical pacts”.
His backers claim Dr Abela had shot down a backroom deal that would have seen no race held and Mr Fearne automatically take over as prime minister.
Transport Minister Ian Borg would have become deputy prime minister, and Dr Abela would be made minister and facilitated into the role of deputy leader of the PL, according to the terms of that deal.
Others have said Dr Abela was himself eyeing the position of deputy prime minister, but this was not on the table.
Dr Abela has been openly critical of the current administration in recent weeks, saying the PL needs “root and branch” reform. However, he also said he would not make any drastic changes to the Cabinet.
His detractors raise questions over his lack of experience in senior political positions.