The EU does not lack internal and external critics who argue that it needs to shake up its governance structures to ensure it has the political and economic clout to compete with the US, China and Russia.
But for many citizens living in some countries on its eastern borders, the EU remains their best chance of seeing their countries’ governance reformed, their civil liberties protected, and their economic prospects improved.
Ukraine applied to join the EU just over a year ago following Russia’s invasion. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal told Reuters he wanted “Ukraine to join the EU in two years”. After meeting EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at a February summit in Kyiv, President Volodymyr Zelensky said: “Tonight we can say that Ukraine is moving towards its goal (of joining the EU)”.
In a recent unannounced visit to Ukraine, European Parliament President Roberta Metsola said: “Ukraine’s future is in the EU.” Metsola has been among the first to call for Ukraine to be given a pathway to eventual EU membership. Zelensky has ambitions to start negotiations this year.
While the EU supports Ukraine and acknowledges its efforts to speed up reforms, it has declined to offer a fast track to membership while the country is at war.
The process could take years. Croatia, the last country to join the EU in 2013, waited for a decade to join the Union. It took Ukraine’s neighbour Poland 10 years to become a member in 2004.
To be allowed to join, Ukraine must fulfil extensive criteria, from political stability, including democratic institutions guaranteeing the respect of the rule of law and human rights, to economic ability to withstand more competition.
Another major stumbling block lies in the path of Ukraine joining the EU. Accession criteria do not specifically say that a country at war cannot become an EU member. But the bloc does not want to import territorial conflicts.
The situation in Georgia, which also applied to join the EU last year, exacerbates the geopolitical risks that the Union faces due to Russia’s expansionist attitudes on its borders with Europe.
The Georgian government’s increasing rapprochement with Russia is raising geopolitical tensions. Recent protests by pro-Europe Georgians against a proposed law on the registration of non-governmental organisations have irritated Russia, which alleges these protests “are being orchestrated from abroad”.
As long as the war persists, Ukraine will undoubtedly see more support from the EU and the US in the form of military and economic aid. This is almost inevitable as the security of the EU itself is at risk should Ukraine fail to survive as an independent nation. But expecting Ukraine to join the EU in the short term is unrealistic.
Perhaps the most crucial reason behind this sobering prediction is that the EU itself needs some drastic governance reforms to enable it to wield the clout it should have as a cohesive union of 27 member states. There will be no shortage of emotive comments by EU politicians in support of the brave people of Ukraine, Georgia, Bosnia Herzegovina and Kosovo, among others. But the various structural weaknesses pose an existential risk if the EU continues to grow without first reforming its governance.
The process for Ukraine to join the EU may take years. The Union needs to be more determined to support Zelensky not only to resist Russian aggression but to start the reforms the country needs to build a credible track record of fighting endemic corruption and adopting democratic values.