Malta could expect to achieve herd immunity by mid-October if the current COVID-19 vaccination rate is kept up, a Times of Malta exercise has found. 

And for the island to meet the end-of-summer target set by the EU, the speed at which the daily number of jabs is being administered needs to be kicked up a notch to reach 2,569 doses per day. 

That could of course happen: authorities are expecting more doses to arrive and Health Minister Chris Fearne has previously said the island has the capacity to administer 10,000 doses a day.

According to the latest population calculations by the NSO, there are 432,616 adults eligible to get vaccinated, of which 70 per cent need to be given the jab if the island is to declare herd immunity. 

This means that a total of 302,831 adults have to be vaccinated for this to be achieved. Herd immunity is when the vast majority of a community is immune to a virus and so spread is drastically reduced. 

With the three vaccines currently available in Malta – by Moderna, Pfizer and AstraZeneca - each person will require two doses to be fully inoculated, meaning the authorities have to administer 605,662 doses.  

As of the official data published on March 2, the health authorities have administered 84,129 doses which means there are at least 521,533 doses that have yet to be given out. 

So when can we expect herd immunity?

Malta has administered an average of 1,655 doses per day since vaccine data started being published in mid-January. In recent weeks, vaccine rollout seems to have picked up the pace after a relatively slow start.

For this reason, rather than using the all-time average to project vaccine rollout over the coming months, we calculated the average over the past seven days up to March 2. 

Over this seven-day period, an average of 2,254 vaccine doses were administered per day.

With such an average and 521,533 doses left to administer it will take around 231.4 days to have 70 per cent vaccine coverage, meaning Malta would achieve herd immunity by October 20. 

This is almost a month past the end-of-summer target set by the EU and which aims to have all member states declaring herd immunity by September 22. 

For Malta to achieve herd immunity by that date, healthcare workers must start administering 2,569 doses per day. 

And for a mid-summer target that would see herd immunity by the Santa Marija feast on August 15, around 3,160 jabs need to start being given out per day. 

For the start of summer on June 21, the figure shoots up to 4,741 per day while a staggering 5,859 doses need to be given if Malta is to reach herd immunity by May, as predicted by Prime Minister Robert Abela. 

What do the authorities say?

Despite the current numbers, the authorities are optimistic they can reach herd immunity sooner than predicted. 

Asked about the prospect of Malta missing the EU deadline and only achieving immunity by mid-October, Superintendent of Public Health Charmaine Gauci said herd immunity should be achieved before that date. 

With more vaccines expected to be approved in the coming weeks and manufacturers proving more jabs, Gauci said the rollout will continue picking up speed.

She did not say, however, when she believed herd immunity would be achieved. 

What about the Johnson and Johnson vaccine?

The exercise carried out by Times of Malta was worked out using existing data and so does not include projections for when the single-dose Johnson and Johnson vaccine starts being administered. 

The EU set to approve the use of the Johnson and Johnson vaccine in March, with Health Minister Chris Fearne saying this could significantly speed up the roll out.

It remains unclear how many doses of this vaccine Malta will be initially receiving.