Henry Kissinger’s famous aphorism advises that one should not go into diplomatic negotiations unless one’s chances of success are 85 per cent. Questioned on the war in Ukraine, the 99-year-old eminence grise of foreign policy urged the US and the EU to start negotiations with Russia as soon as possible.
Does this mean that the former US secretary of state believes that there is an 85 per cent chance that negotiations will succeed? Not really. His concern is that, with the prolongation of the current stalemate, the war risks spiralling out of control.
Judging by the negotiations that have taken place so far in the early stages of the war in March and April 2022, it seems that currently Russia and Ukraine have nothing to offer each other that can support viable peace talks with any realistic chance of stopping the war. Eighteen months of war of attrition with no end in sight have left little space in current political discourse for considering a peace process.
Several political leaders had the wrong political foresight in 2022 that the conflict will end in the short term. I recall a tweet from EP president Roberta Metsola on May 15, 2022 congratulating Ukraine for its Eurovision success and stating that, within a year, she will attend to the Eurovision “in a free Ukraine”.
Western allies are committed to provide Ukraine with more arms and funds and place tougher sanctions against Russia. They are also united in declaring that any negotiations will be carried out by Ukrainians based on their own needs and on their own timetable.
I am totally in favour of immediate diplomatic negotiations with Russia. This would avoid worse political, economic and human losses. A prolonged war of attrition gives a significant advantage to Russia’s much larger forces and the more the war lasts there is a real danger that it could lead to the collapse of Ukraine’s economy and erode the public support for Ukraine’s cause in the US and EU member States.
Moreover, postponing negotiations would give Russia more time to consolidate its hold on the areas it occupies and to proceed with its ‘russification’ of the population under its control.
Those opposed to near-term negotiations fear that a cease-fire and talks now would be an appeasement of Russia, allowing it to keep the 20 per cent of Ukrainian territory it has already seized militarily, and that, under the pretext of avoiding more bloodshed, one risks leaving issues underlying the conflict unresolved, such as Ukraine’s territorial integrity and its place in an evolving European security architecture.
In recent history, Russia has twice guaranteed Ukraine’s internationally recognised borders, including Crimea: in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum and in the 1997 Russia-Ukraine Friendship Treaty.
The former was signed at the December 1994 OSCE conference to provide security guarantees to Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan for giving up their nuclear weapons and joining the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
The signatories (Russia, the US and the UK) undertook to respect the independence and sovereignty of Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan in their existing borders. The 1997 Russia-Ukraine Friendship Treaty endorsed the principle of inviolability of existing borders and territorial integrity of both countries.
Following the outbreak of war in Eastern Ukraine in 2014, laborious and extensive negotiations mediated by France and Germany led to the Minsk agreements in 2014 and 2015, which provided for a ceasefire and constitutional reforms granting self-government to the rebel regions in the Donbas.
The fighting never really subsided. Upon officially recognising the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic, in February 2022, Russia declared the Minsk agreements non-existent.
It is essential to broaden the peace process to include not only Russia-Ukraine relations but also Russia’s relations with the US, the EU and NATO- Edward Zammit Lewis
Clearly, Russia-Ukraine history is a sobering experience and dampens realistic hopes for a comprehensive and lasting settlement to the complex issues that underlie the current war. Yet, as the war drags on in an apparent stalemate, in my opinion the US and the EU should prepare for a peace process and identify essential elements that might persuade both sides to embark on serious negotiations accompanied by a series of confidence-building measures.
First of all, it is essential to broaden the peace process to include not only Russia-Ukraine relations but also Russia’s relations with the US, the EU and NATO. This means dealing with Vladimir Putin’s claim that Russia is being unfairly targeted and marginalised by US strategic influence and that an expanding NATO and EU are threatening its security and economy.
Putin’s discourse makes it clear that Russia is seeking a reform of the European security architecture based on a multipolar system which acknowledges Russia as a great economic and nuclear power.
While events on the battlefield continue to attract world attention, a diplomatic war of attrition is also unfolding. In this diplomatic war, Ukraine’s aim is to maintain the cohesion of its international partners and to counter Russia’s central diplomatic objective of gaining tacit acceptance of its annexation of Ukrainian territory.
Still, Ukraine’s diplomatic initiative is focused on gaining support for Volodymyr Zelensky’s 10-point peace plan, which he first presented to the G20 summit in Bali last November. Since then, he has been trying to build momentum among world leaders for a peace summit on Ukraine on the margins of the United Nations General Assembly this month.
His main challenge is how to win the support of the “Global South”.
I must say that the recent G20 summit in Delhi was not encouraging. The joint declaration statement on the war in Ukraine represents a climb down from the statement agreed by the G20 heads of government at their previous meeting in Bali. The Bali statement deplored “in the strongest terms the aggression by the Russian Federation against Ukraine” while the Delhi statement lamented the war but avoided blaming Russia. No wonder Russia hailed the Delhi statement as a “milestone”.
In my view, the main stumbling block for a viable peace process to stop the war in Ukraine is the lack of unity among the international community. Malta’s foreign policy should be more aggressively aligned to facilitate immediate negotiations.
Edward Zammit LewisIt is imperative that the four parties involved – the EU, the US, Russia and Ukraine – start realistic and concrete negotiations towards a long-lasting peace and this to avoid the loss of more human lives and instability in Europe.
Edward Zammit Lewis is a Labour member of parliament.