The government is expecting to make €40 million less from passport sales next year, forecasting a drop in profits of two thirds over just two years.
The forecast forms part of the latest financial estimates that were published on Monday evening along with Budget 2023.
They show that the island cashed in some €61 million from the Individual Investor Programme in 2021.
Since renamed Granting of Citizenship for Exceptional Services, the golden passports scheme is expected to make €30 million by the close of this year.
This is expected to drop even further down to €20 million next year.
Government sources said a contributing factor to the drop in revenue may be a tweak in the way profits from the scheme are managed by government’s bookkeepers.
They said that, during the COVID-19 pandemic, a larger portion of the passport funds were directed to Malta’s consolidated fund to allow them to be used to fight the impact of the viral outbreak.
It is unclear if this had any bearing on the dip in projected profits, however.
Meanwhile, other senior government sources said it stands to reason that the profits would be down because the scheme is “dying”.
Malta’s lucrative golden passports scheme targets high net worth elite seeking easy and uninhibited access to the European Union.
It generated more than €800 million between its launch in 2014 and 2020 and was celebrated by the Labour government as a major money maker.
However, profits from the programme are noticeably down, with passport agents – the professionals licensed to sell them – saying interest in the Maltese offering is on a steady decline.
In summer, Malta announced it was raising the price of the scheme and introducing stricter measures. It then moved to ban Russians from applying as a reaction to the invasion of Ukraine in February.
Agents involved in the promotion of the scheme have said that since then interest in the scheme has been at an all-time low.
Then, another blow. Last month, the European Commission announced it would be taking Malta to court over the programme.
Brussels referred Malta to the Court of Justice of the European Union over what it says is a violation of EU laws.
It is the latest step in the European Union’s long-running battle against the investor citizenship scheme.
Malta remains the only state to have such a scheme after Bulgaria and Cyprus both scrapped similar programmes.
The government has said it believes it has the right to run the passport scheme but will let the court decide.
A decision is expected next year.