Re-opening shuttered businesses could lead to a spike in new COVID-19 cases and potentially even deaths, but letting the economy stagnate further will also have devastating repercussions on the country, advisors have told Prime Minister Robert Abela.

Over the past few weeks, Abela and a small team overseeing the pandemic response have been grappling with a huge question: should the government keep the economy shut to keep the population safe? Or kick-start the economic recovery to avoid a fiscal catastrophe?

On Sunday, Abela indicated that he had finally made up his mind, announcing that restaurants and hairdressers would be among the businesses that will reopen in the coming days, two months since they were forced to shut down to curb the pandemic.  

A detailed announcement for businesses is expected was made by Abela on Monday evening.  

Restaurants, bars, cinemas and other public places were closed on March 18, with the government tightening coronavirus restrictions after Malta reported its first cases of local COVID-19 transmission on March 16.

Health vs the economy

Government economic advisors being consulted on the pandemic told Times of Malta they had painted Abela a bleak picture of what maintaining the current economic shutdown would do to the country.  

A “very likely scenario", one advisor said, would see unemployment spiral out of control to between 50,000 and 80,000 workers over the next two years, with the country struggling to maintain social welfare without having to resort to massive borrowing. This would bring with it new social and health problems, they have warned.  

On the other hand, a public health advisor has warned that further reopening of shuttered businesses and easing of restrictions could lead to a spike in new cases of the coronavirus. This could even result in further deaths, the official warned.

A healthcare worker in full protective gear.

“Economists see big pictures and big numbers, but when it comes to health, every life matters. So that should be the first priority,” a health adviser said.

"If you lose your business, so be it. But you have only one life." 

Those consulting on economic matters, however, have urged the prime minister not to under-estimate the "economic disaster” on the horizon.  

They say that while it may be frowned upon by some, the economy often comes at a cost. 

“We have long accepted that certain economic activity has a human cost - we have fatty foods, even though they cause heart attacks, we sell cigarettes, and alcohol too,” one advisor said.    

He added: “Thinking that the risk to the economy is just a few job loses is a drastic understatement." 

New normal with new rules

Meanwhile, at the government negotiating table, a handful of ministers have been meeting with advisors and other stakeholders to decide on the way forward, with the final decision resting with Abela.  

Government sources said the prime minister had over the past few days decided to start charting out a course for an economic recovery that would see businesses reopen. This, they said would be coupled with a suite of new complementary measures.  

Sources said 'the new normal’ would mean that hairdressers for instance would only be able to see a limited number of clients at any given time, with others asked to wait outside at "a safe social distance”. Protective gear would have to be worn by hairdressers, and equipment cleaned between clients.  

As for restaurants, limits would have to be set on covers and the number of people allowed to sit at each table. Enforcement would also have to be stepped up with hefty fines envisaged for abusers.