The latest political surveys offer an interesting, though unsurprising, snapshot of Malta’s political landscape.
Despite the constant scandals, nepotism and growing public frustration over several issues, the Labour Party remains comfortably ahead, leading by some 18,700 votes, according to Times of Malta’s survey.
Surveys carried out by MaltaToday and pollster Vince Marmarà put the PL in the lead by 12,000 and 16,000 votes respectively. Of course, these are mere snapshots and does not mean an election held tomorrow would reflect the survey results.
A day is a long time in politics, and two years to the next general election is an eternity. But there are clear trends.
Labour’s resilience in the face of controversy signals it has managed to reclaim its core voter base that temporarily drifted away during the height of the hospital scandal, which unofficially exposed a rift between the leadership and Joseph Muscat.
But its unassailable 12-year circa 40,000-vote majority appears to have fizzled out, with moderate and swing voters appearing to no longer believe PL is the way forward.
The surveys show around a fifth of voters feel politically orphaned, presumably tired of the scandals and reluctance to act against blatant lawbreakers. Meanwhile, few of those moderates are inclined to switch back to PN. It is still too early to see whether the small parties will benefit.
PN leader Bernard Grech has chosen to focus on the silver lining – pointing to a narrowing gap compared to the last general election and a relatively positive showing in last year’s European Parliament elections. But while “progress” is his narrative, the reality remains stark: unless something changes drastically, the PN is heading for another defeat in 2027.
The party appears rudderless, failing to set a clear ideological course or present bold policy ideas that resonate with the electorate. Unless the economy takes a downturn or people reach a tipping point over cost-of-living concerns, overpopulation and rampant construction, there is no obvious path to victory for the PN on its own steam.
Meanwhile, the PL is clearly looking inward. By embracing Muscat and quietly undermining opposing institutions, it has emboldened its base. Most effectively, it leverages incumbency, spinning pyrrhic victories into triumphs through a powerful PR machine backed by funding the PN can only dream of.
The government will likely continue leveraging economic stability and social measures to maintain broad support, even if dissatisfaction simmers beneath the surface. Meanwhile, the PN remains too risk-averse, reluctant to take strong positions that might alienate certain voters but will certainly galvanise others. Voters may be increasingly frustrated with the government but frustration alone does not translate into support for the opposition.
If the PN wants to win, it needs to stop merely waiting for Labour to self-destruct.
Grech has largely managed to quell internal rifts but still needs to convince the public that he is a viable alternative prime minister. While he is right to focus on people’s real concerns, an effective leader needs both strong policies and – in today’s world – the power of rhetoric. They are far more impactful than commissioning reports few will ever read.
His absence from a recent protest against magisterial inquiry reforms, citing other “commitments”, only served to alienate part of his base. The PN cannot afford to be overshadowed by civil society movements much like Labour was by the GWU in the 1980s and 1990s, nor can it risk losing core supporters simply because the PL is (successfully) branding activists as “PN extremists”.
The next two years will be a crucial test for the PN to break out of its stagnation and for small parties to shake Malta’s political duopoly.
But, unless Labour faces a major internal rift or an economic downturn, the surveys suggest it is on track for a fourth consecutive victory – more by default than merit.