Labour lead grows to 10.6%: Times of Malta poll

The Labour Party has extended its lead to 10.6 percentage points in the final Times of Malta poll ahead of Saturday’s election.

The poll, carried out by market research firm Esprimi, shows that if an election were to be held today, Labour would win 53.5 per cent of the vote, with PN winning 42.9 per cent.

The remaining 3.6 per cent would go to smaller parties.

Pollsters estimate the gap between the two parties as currently standing at 33,600 votes. However, this figure could change if voter turnout rises or dips.

The poll predicts a voter turnout of almost 89 per cent, comfortably higher than the 85.6 per cent who turned up to vote in the 2022 election, and bucking the trend of decreasing turnout.

In total, the poll's tally of non-voters has dipped to 11.1 per cent. This figure includes uncollected votes, votes from those who plan not to vote, and invalid votes.

Pollsters surveyed 600 people aged over 16 between May 18 and 23, with a margin of error of four per cent. Pollsters use modelling techniques to predict how undecided voters are likely to vote.

Parties on opposite trajectories

The 33,600-vote gap would mean that Labour has increased its margin by 14,000 votes during the electoral campaign.

A similar poll in April, just before the campaign kicked off, had put Labour’s lead at 6.3 per cent, or 19,600 votes.

By mid-May, this was up to 8.9 per cent, or 28,600 votes.

Labour's tally of 53.5 per cent shows the party on an upward trend, consistently growing its share of the vote in recent months.

The party has hovered around the 51 per cent mark in all polls since the 2022 election, when it won 55 per cent of the vote, until a poll earlier this month showed it securing 52.9 per cent of voters.

The latest poll suggests the party has continued to increase its tally during the campaign, with its share rising once again.

PN, meanwhile, has taken the opposite trajectory in recent months, polls suggest.

Over the past year, polls have shown PN winning 45 per cent of the overall vote, with its tally barely changing since Alex Borg was elected party leader in October.

However, polls show its support dipping slightly to 44 per cent earlier this month and dropping again to 42.9 per cent again in this latest poll, indicating that PN has lost votes as the campaign progressed.

Smaller parties, meanwhile, remain broadly stuck in a rut, with their tally only growing marginally to 3.6 per cent in this latest poll, far below the 12.7 per cent they secured in the EP elections two years ago.

Government performance remains stable

Labour’s growing lead is reflected in voters’ evaluation of the government’s performance, the poll suggests.

The poll held a fortnight ago had shown a sharp improvement in voters’ assessment of the government, handing it a score of 3.62 when asked to rank it on a scale of 1 (terrible) to 5 (excellent).

This score has remained stable in this latest poll, only rising marginally to 3.67.

Likewise, the portion of voters who awarded the government a positive rating (a score of either 4 or 5) has inched upwards by two percentage points since earlier this month, while the share handing it a negative score (either 1 or 2) dropped by the same margin.

Government support dips among middle-aged voters

Voters of all ages broadly share a positive assessment of the government, although the most recent poll shows it gaining favour among some age groups and losing traction with others.

Younger voters, once the group most critical of the government, now hold a firmly positive view, with 58 per cent of those under the age of 25 awarding a score of either 4 or 5, a rise of 10 percentage points over the past fortnight.

At its lowest ebb in the summer of 2023, only 8 per cent of young voters held a positive view of the government’s performance.

The government appears to have increased its support among most other age groups, the poll suggests.

However, its support has dipped noticeably among voters aged 45 to 54. A fortnight ago, 64 per cent of voters within this age group believed the government was performing well. This has since dipped to 56 per cent.

Consolidating support in Labour heartlands

Likewise, the poll indicates that government support has remained largely unchanged across Malta’s different regions during the campaign.

Labour appears to have continued to successfully rally its core supporters, with support in its heartlands increasing slightly throughout the campaign.

More than two-thirds of all voters in Malta’s typically Labour-leaning southern and south-eastern regions now say the government is performing well, a slight uptick since earlier this month. Meanwhile, one in two voters in the more PN-leaning northern district also now hold a positive view of the government’s performance.

However, the government has seen its support shrink slightly in Malta’s western towns, dipping from 55 per cent earlier this month to 53 per cent today.

Meanwhile, the large portion of Gozitan voters who were undecided in previous polls (39 per cent) appears to be shrinking, with just 19 per cent now handing the government a neutral rating of three.

Several of those who have made their minds up now appear to be in favour of the government’s performance, with 62 per cent of voters in Gozo now handing down a positive assessment, up from 54 per cent in early May.

However, the increase is outpaced by those who have come to view the government’s performance negatively. While this was at just seven per cent two weeks ago, it has now risen to 20 per cent.

Government support up among Labour and PN faithful but dips among non-voters

The government has also continued to consolidate its support among people who voted for both major parties in the 2022 election, but its support among non-voters has dipped slightly.

Previous Labour voters awarded the government a score of 4.24, virtually identical to the score handed down earlier this month, with more than four in five saying the government is performing well.

However, it has also increased its support among those who voted PN in 2022. In this latest poll, 11 per cent of former PN voters believe the government is doing well, doubling its tally since earlier in the campaign.

While almost two-thirds of these voters (64 per cent) previously awarded the government a negative assessment, this has now dipped to 53 per cent.

However, the poll indicates that the government has failed to increase its support among non-voters.

While 39 per cent of non-voters say the government is performing well, a marginal one-point dip since earlier in May, those who hold a negative view have risen from 16 per cent to 22 per cent.