Poll puts Labour ahead by 30,000 votes

Labour is projected to be ahead of the Nationalist Party by around 30,000 votes, according to the findings of the latest poll by Vincent Marmarà.

The poll puts Labour on 53.3% and the PN on 42.8% once undecided voters and non-respondents are factored in through a statistical model. Other parties are projected to receive 3.9% of the vote.

That gives Labour a 10.5 percentage point lead over the PN, broadly in line with the previous Marmarà poll published one week ago. That poll had Labour ahead by around 29,000 votes and also found a 10.5-point gap between the two parties.

Other polls, one by Esprimi for Times of Malta and another by Maltatoday, published last week also had Labour ahead, with Esprimi/Times of Malta reporting a 28,600-vote gap and Maltatoday predicting 17,400 votes.

Marmarà said the gap in his calculations could vary depending on different turnout and undecided-voter scenarios. The survey says the lead currently ranges between 27,000 and 33,000 votes in Labour’s favour, with an average gap of around 30,000 votes.

Raw data

Before statistical modelling was applied, 49.1% of respondents said they would vote Labour in the next general election, 38.1% said they would vote PN, 3.2% said they would vote for other parties and 9.6% said they were still undecided.

The share of undecided voters has fallen since last week’s survey but remains significant, with Marmarà estimating that around 28,000 voters still do not know who they will vote for.

The poll also suggests limited movement between the two major parties.

Among those who voted Labour in 2022, 84.1% said they would vote Labour again, while 2.7% said they would now vote PN. Another 9.6% said they were undecided, 3% said they would not vote and 0.6% said they would vote for other parties.

Among 2022 PN voters, 84.5% said they would stick with the PN, while 3.2% said they would now vote Labour. A further 9.8% said they were undecided, 1.9% said they would not vote and 0.6% said they would vote for other parties.

Marmarà noted that vote switching between the parties remained small and was being largely offset by movement in the opposite direction.

Which leader do voters prefer?

The survey also asked respondents which political leader they preferred as prime minister. Robert Abela led Alex Borg by 14.5 points, with 47.8% preferring Abela and 33.3% preferring Borg.

Another 9.5% said they did not know, 7% said they preferred nobody and 2.4% named others.

In last week's poll, Abela led Borg by 14 points. 

Among Labour voters in 2022, 87.6% said they preferred Abela as prime minister, while 2.3% preferred Borg. Among PN voters in 2022, 82.2% preferred Borg and 4% preferred Abela.

The survey was carried out by Sagalytics between May 14 and May 20 through telephone and mobile phone interviews. It was based on a sample of 1,500 people aged 16 and over, with a 95% confidence level and a margin of error of ±2.5 percentage points.

The sample was matched to Malta’s population by age, district and sex, and calibrated according to how respondents voted in the 2022 general election. Sagalytics said it used the Multiple Imputation Technique to estimate the choices of respondents who refused to answer some questions or were undecided.