People and organisations all over the world want to predict the future and pick a course of action designed to achieve their future goals. This effort is beset with the uncertainty, generated by a fast-changing world. Enter strategic planning, which provides a framework within which policies can be formulated, decisions taken, processes managed and results monitored for their effectiveness.

Whether it is the head of a household or a policymaker in the government, such as the Ministry for Social Policy and Children’s Rights (MSPC), the approach is the same. Good strategic planning involves asking three fundamental questions: (1) who are we? (2) where do we want to go? and (3) how are we going to get there?

Although strategic planning does not guarantee the future, it prepares whoever does it to recognise the future as it evolves and react in a way to achieve the desired goals.

This is precisely what the MSPC is engaged in now, relating to its National Strategy for Poverty Reduction 2025-2035. Contrary to what a well-known social observer recently claimed in the media that there is no social vision, the ministry’s work has been highlighted by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) as a positive example in the application of strategic foresight.

As part of a multi-country project called ‘LIMinal’, funded by the European Commission, the OECD has been working with partners in Malta on a pilot case. It features innovative approaches towards poverty reduction and social inclusion goals and uses strategic foresight as a complementary practice in the preparation of strategy.

For this purpose, the MSPC drafted a document called ‘Strengthening a Culture of Preparedness through Evidence-Based Anticipatory Policymaking’. This reflects the ministry’s collaborative efforts and the insights gained from them. Work is being finalised on a refinement of an Uncertainty Dashboard and children’s mental health.

The MSPC and the OECD worked together on an ‘Uncertainty Scan’ – a three-step tool that revealed unexamined assumptions and so-called ‘ghost scenarios’ that often go unnoticed. The initiative challenged and refined the understanding of uncertainties, assessed their impact on strategy and employed a tool inspired by the European Commission: the Uncertainty Dashboard.

Example of a knowable and high impact uncertainty with assigned indicators and proposed actions.

This prototype serves to systematically monitor and evaluate uncertainties. It has the potential to support organisations in coordinating knowledge and data about uncertainties across multiple teams; build consensus on priorities; identify tailored capabilities, strategies and actions; provide a basis for commissioning research; and reveal what knowledge different stakeholders can provide.

The Social Policy Ministry’s work has been highlighted by the OECD as a positive example in the application of strategic foresight- Mark Musù

For example, with the ageing population trend in Malta, the MSPC can question the prospects of workforce shortages as retirees come to outnumber new entrants. It can also ask itself whether increased longevity translates into an improved quality of life that permits a continued contribution to society.

Step 1 was reframing trends into uncertainties by using insights from government and NGOs; employing a ‘Knowledge x Impact matrix’ to explore the extent of participants’ knowledge; and facilitating group discussions on the expected impact that uncertainties can have.

The ‘Knowledge x Impact matrix’ had four scenarios: Knowable/High Impact (manage closely); Unknowable/High Impact (develop strategic resilience); Unknowable/Low Impact (maintain situational awareness); Knowable/Low Impact (automate and standardise).

Step 2 was analysing and managing the different dimensions of uncertainty. Here, the ministry further analysed, clarified and refined the identified uncertainties. This involved a broad group of stakeholders with different perspectives and access to insights based on their proximity to those affected by poverty and social exclusion. This step provided an opportunity to engage in strategic conversations and gather data.

Iteration and sense-making exercises, using a platform called ‘Padlet’, collected written comments, received results from a voting exercise and facilitated discussion. Through the exercises, indicators were identified that can be used to monitor the evolution of uncertainties and generate further knowledge about them.

Step 3 was the development of the Uncertainty Dashboard: All input from the previous two steps was inserted into the Dashboard and integrated with two operational sections (assessment and actions) to explore practical responses to the uncertainties.

After concluding the pilot case, the MSPC assessed the process based on four learning outcomes. These were (1) supporting learning about strategic foresight principles; (2) considering new processes for information gathering and decision-making; (3) identifying future uncertainties and challenges in poverty and social inclusion; and (4) engaging relevant stakeholders, both governmental and non-governmental.

When the project is completed, the MSPC will have a powerful tool to shape the future, equip the organisation with intellectual agility and alertness and enable it to respond in an agile fashion to changes.

Mark Musù is permanent secretary of the Ministry for Social Policy and Children’s Rights and the Ministry for Inclusion and the Voluntary Sector.