Election Desk: Highlights from the campaign’s fourth week

The numbers keep rolling

Let’s start with the number everyone’s been waiting for. The latest survey by Vincent Marmara puts Labour ahead of the PN by around 30,000 votes, with a 10.5-point gap between the two parties. That’s broadly in line with the previous week's poll, which found a similar margin. Two other polls – one by Esprimi for Times of Malta and another by MaltaToday – also put Labour ahead, though with slightly smaller gaps.

The vast majority of those who voted Labour at the last general election said they will do so again. The same goes for PN voters. Vote-switching between the two parties is minimal and largely cancels itself out. However, around 28,000 voters remain undecided. In theory, this could shift the result considerably, but the polling trend itself hasn’t shifted in weeks.

Meanwhile, Robert Abela remains the firm favourite as prime minister, leading Alex Borg by 14.5 points in the polls. 

A week of debates

The leaders spent much of the week facing each other in various rooms, podiums and TV studios for a series of debates, which ranged from rowdy to politely caffeinated.

The loudest of the five parties' debates happened on Monday at the University of Malta. Their followers were packed into the hall and spent most of the debate chanting for their respective leaders. The moderator tried in vain to keep the audience in check, saying that their behaviour was inappropriate for Malta's highest learning institution.

The leaders kept at their predictable positions: Borg hammered the PN's EU experience, frequently citing Roberta Metsola, while Abela stressed the competence of his cabinet and economic record. All of the smaller parties chastised the two larger ones over their connections to the building industry.

Meanwhile, Momentum candidate Pierre Schembri Wismayer made headlines after he was accused of making a crass gesture at the debate. He later apologised.

One issue on which Abela and Borg agreed wholeheartedly: neither said they wanted a new mosque in Malta.

Tuesday's Malta Chamber of SMEs-hosted debate was a far calmer affair. Abela portrayed Labour as the only guarantors of the island's economic stability while Borg said the stability was stagnation and demanded proof of the new economic sectors the party said it would create.

The two traded accusations of plagiarising manifestos, with Abela accusing his rival of having copied so many parts that his platform would be rejected by Turnitin. Borg countered by listing several Labour pledges he insisted had been stolen from his own party's platform.

By Thursday they were at it again, this time on TVM's Xtra. The majority of the debate saw Abela bombard Borg with fundamental economic figures: the inflation rate, poverty rate and population of Malta. The population figure turned out to be slightly wrong and Abela made no hesitation in pointing it out. Borg shot back at Abela's economic record, calling it a certificate of failure for the quality of life on the island and pointing to the 100,000 people, as he put it, at risk of poverty. Both leaders declined to take a firm stance on euthanasia.

The PN's big infrastructure week

The PN dedicated this week to unveiling massive infrastructural projects. On Friday, they unveiled their major proposal to tackle traffic: an underground metro line, measuring 11.5km from the airport to Pembroke, with eight stops and including the Mater Dei Hospital, University of Malta, Gżira, Sliema and St Julian's.

The project is expected to be completed within five years and will be financed by both EU funds and loans. It will be free for Maltese residents, but tourists will be expected to pay for their ride. There were hints at a second phase, to cost €2.5bn, to follow the completion of the first.

Adrian Delia positioned himself as the prospective finance minister to sign off on the project. He claimed it would be "a light at the end of the tunnel," stating that the cost of inaction for Malta's current traffic problem was already approaching €900 million in terms of productivity lost per year.

The PN also released their full manifesto at the beginning of the week, which contained approximately 1,000 proposals spread across sixteen sections, including two new hospitals, another medical school, free metro travel for residents, the previously mentioned metro line, solar canopies on all public car parks and a requirement of two-thirds majority in parliament to change the zoning of ODZ (Outside Development Zone) land. A multitude of promises, many accompanied by vast figures; some of them may prove to be problematic.

Labour's numbers problem

Finance Minister Clyde Caruana appeared at a Labour press conference this week to assure voters that Malta's deficit and debt are on a downward path regardless of the cost of the party's manifesto pledges.

When asked for the overall price tag of those pledges, he declined to give a figure, saying the costings had already been factored into existing projections. Malta is projected to eliminate its budget deficit by 2029 and bring debt below 40% of GDP by 2030, he said.

Labour's manifesto runs to 263 pages and over 1,000 points. Its headline financial offer includes tax breaks, a €1,000 "super bonus" for every working person in Malta, and continued energy subsidies.

Caruana also played down suggestions that the government's controversial tax settlement law, which has seen several high-profile money-laundering cases collapse, could land Malta back on FATF's grey list.

The votes are already in (some of them)

Early voting got underway on Saturday, with two polling stations open for voters who registered and will be unable to make it on May 30. By Saturday afternoon, 59.2% of the 16,402 registered early voters had cast their ballots, with 9,722 votes counted as of 2pm.

Both Abela and Borg issued short videos appealing to early voters. Abela presented Labour as a safe pair of hands in uncertain global times. Borg told voters to think of their children, the environment, the economy and education.

Six days to go!