The daily number of deaths from COVID-19 in Malta is expected to triple next month, according to a global health research centre that predicts the spread of coronavirus.

According to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), an affiliate institute of the World Health Organization, deaths in Malta are expected to rise from the current average two a day to about six a day by mid December before dropping again.

Epidemiologist Neville Calleja said that, while all predictions have their limitations due to a number of variables, the data compiled by the institute was reliable. One had to keep in mind that there was a four to eight-week lag between a person testing positive and a death.

“We had a very good first wave where we managed to protect our frail who are now, however, dying. Besides, as we have seen during the weekly health updates, the highest amount of clusters remain in family environments. We need to be vigilant. People are going to find it very hard not to meet this Christmas but we need to find other ways,” he said.

The model predicts a similar pattern of increases in deaths in other European countries such as Italy in December before a drop over the following months.
However, the institute’s prediction also gives another scenario: If people are vigilant and wear masks and observe health restrictions the number could hover at around three a day in mid December.

As of yesterday, there have been 101 deaths from COVID-19 in Malta, out of 8,247 cases. Fewer than 20 people died between March and September but deaths have skyrocketed since.

Statistician Vincent Marmara said that when looking at the deaths per 1 million population Malta still had low rate compared to other countries – standing at 1.2 per cent, which may increase to 1.4 per cent as there are a lot of active cases.

Malta currently ranks 17th out of 31 countries in Europe in terms of deaths per 100,000 people in the last fortnight, according to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.

How has the virus spread?

Marmara said data shows that a peak in new cases is followed by a peak in deaths. “This shows us that when cases increase, we are to expect a spike in deaths a few days or weeks after,” he said.

There was a lull in cases and deaths 15 weeks after the pandemic hit, when cases dropped down to zero following a range of restrictive measures imposed by the health authorities. 

Measures included the closing of non-essential establishments, schools and the airport. People went into voluntary lock-down with many working from home.
As the number of cases dropped, the measures were lifted at the end of June, and the airport was reopened, with large gatherings allowed.

Soon after, in July, the numbers started increasing again but deaths remained low, as many of those being infected were younger people attending parties.

 “Of course then those young people infected others and, as the cases continued to increase and more older people were impacted – so did the deaths increase,” Mamara said adding that deaths also peaked when the virus first entered homes for the elderly.  

The vast majority of victims who died since the virus first reached Malta in March have been elderly people who, according to the health authorities, had underlying health conditions. 

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The victims

Youngest death

Last week saw the death of the youngest victim - popular Qormi mayor Renald Falzon, 46, who died just weeks after his father died from the virus.

Falzon, a father of three, had been receiving treatment at Mater Dei’s Intensive Treatement Unit for weeks, after contracting the virus in October. It is understood the father-of-three had other health conditions. 

A close relative of the mayor, who preferred not to be named, urged people to be careful and vigilant.

“Renald got the virus because he went to help out to organise a funeral. Who would have ever thought that he would get it, let alone that he and his father would die sometime after that,” the close relative said. 

Falzon had helped organise the funeral of a man who died at the Freeport on September 29 after a container fell on the lifter he was operating.

First death

The first coronavirus death was on April 8. That day national fears about the virus spiralled when a 92-year-old Gozitan woman – Ġorġa Zammit – become the first person to die from the virus.

In an interview months later, her daughter Josette Zammit spoke about how the family had to live with the stigma.

“She was the first person to die because of COVID-19 and we did not want people linking it to our family. But as time passed, the stigma faded away,” she had said. 

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The Relatives

'The hospital turns into a prison'

While the stigma may have faded as more people contracted the virus, relatives of those who succumbed to it have shared the pain of being unable to visit their loved ones once they were diagnosed with coronavirus.

Giselle Camilleri, who lost her 82-year-old father Charles Camilleri to the virus on October 21, had such an experience. Her father, who had dementia, was admitted to Mater Dei Hospital on October 13 but moved to St Thomas Hospital three days later, where he remained until his health condition deteriorated and he was taken back to Mater Dei. No one was allowed to see him throughout his hospitalisation.

“The second people are diagnosed and hospitalized, the hospital turns into a prison. That’s what happened to my father. No one was allowed to visit. We are allowing these people to die alone. This can’t be right,” Camilleri said

When he died, he was buried the following afternoon. 

“I live in France and did not have time to come to Malta. They would not wait,” she said, adding that the family had offered to pay for any additional costs to be able to give her father a decent burial. 

“For me it’s like my father was lost at sea. It hurts that he died alone and without a proper goodbye,” she said. 

Others like Camilleri had spoken up before about the heartbreak brought about by the abrupt and fast way in which the victims are buried.

Authorities relaxed burial rules last month to give relatives up to 24 hours to bury victims rather than the few hours originally permitted and allowing funerals to be held in places of worship.