In early July, Malta could boast of being the country with the fewest number of active cases of coronavirus in the whole of the EU.
Throughout the pandemic, the island was the darling of the World Health Organisation, which had praised the health authority’s COVID-19 containment strategy.
But within weeks, Malta has seen such a dramatic increase in coronavirus patients that it now is in the top ten European countries for the number of new COVID-19 cases for every 100,000 people.
Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia have all put restrictions on travellers arriving from Malta – no longer considered a ‘safe corridor’ country.
It places ninth out of 31 countries, according to data issued by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) on Tuesday.
The calculation – 26.7 cases per 100,000 people – excludes 66 of the 88 migrants who tested positive upon their arrival on the island. The discrepancy could be a result of the government’s initial decision to leave out the migrants when reporting the new cases. Migrants who test positive have since started being added to the daily tally, alongside local cases.
Why is the number of cases per 100,000 people important?
The number of new cases per 100,000 is being used by countries when establishing whether they should allow travelling to and from other places.
On Monday, Lithuania banned travellers from Malta while Estonia and Latvia both announced those returning from the island must self-isolate for 14 days. On Tuesday night, Ireland also booted Malta off its safe travel ‘green’ list.
Are the migrants really to blame for the spike?
On Monday, Prime Minister Robert Abela claimed the drastic spike in numbers was due to the rescued migrants testing positive for the virus.
But doctors say this is unfair and argued instead the spike was down to the government’s decision to allow large-scale events to go ahead. From July 1, the majority of COVID-19 containment measures were dropped, including a ban on mass events.
This graphic, showing the cases, with the migrant patients excluded, shows there was already an increase.
As of Tuesday afternoon, Malta had a total of 213 patients who still had the virus and are therefore considered active cases. Of these, 88 are migrants while the rest are either patients who were infected through local transmission or who had travelled abroad and tested positive upon their return.
Despite the rise in cases, the vast majority of patients have only experienced mild symptoms: in fact, fewer than one in every 10 patients has been hospitalised.
After days of no new cases being reported in July, the first spike occurred after a COVID-19 patient attended a hotel party that lasted three days. This was followed by a second cluster involving feast enthusiasts who attended the Santa Venera band march.
A third cluster involving partygoers who were clubbing in Paceville has also been reported.
The rest have either been relatives or contact of those who form part of these clusters or imported cases.
What impact do migrant numbers have on the travel restrictions?
Most countries who have placed restrictions on Malta, did so because the island had increased its rate per 100,000 case to a set limit. In the case of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, Malta currently fails their limits, with or without migrant cases included.
For example, in Estonia, countries are deemed not to be safe-travel countries when they exceed 16 cases per 100,000 people. In Lithuania, the figure is 25 and in Latvia it is 20.
As of Tuesday afternoon, Malta’s rate per 100,000 people stood at around 25.3. But if the coronavirus-positive migrants, who have been kept in isolation since their arrival, are included in the calculations, the figure shoots up to around 39.9.
And, to complicate matters, although countries seem to be using the rate per 100,000 people as a standard when establishing the COVID-19 situation in different countries, working out the numbers is not always straightforward because of different ways of compiling the data.
ECDC on reporting of cases
A spokesperson for the ECDC told Times of Malta cases can be reported with a number of variables, including both place of infection and place of residence.
“This implies that it is possible to distinguish between cases who acquired their infection in the reporting country from those who were infected elsewhere, and infections among residents and non-residents, provided that the abovementioned variables have good completeness,” the spokesperson said.
As more countries raise questions on the reporting methods, the spokesperson said that the matter is expected to be discussed further within the network in the coming days.