(Since this article was written the situation in Lebanon has escalated dramatically)
The above title is a play on words to Robert Fisk’s book Pity the Nation which chronicles and describes the civil war in Lebanon between 1975-1990, which Fisk himself lived through and reported on. It seems a fitting title given what has happened in Lebanon over the last few days and what could be about to happen over the next few months.
People may have forgotten given the other more recent tragedies in the Middle East in countries such as Iraq, Syria and Yemen; but Lebanon was the original amphitheatre of death in the region post World War II, with its brutal 15 year civil war coinciding with a 1982 Israeli invasion, the Sabra and Shatila massacres and the subsequent rise of Hezbollah. There was also the war between the Party of God and the Jewish state in 2006.
Ever since the 2006 war, there have been other awful incidents in Lebanon, such as the 2020 Beirut warehouse explosion which left over 200 dead and thousands injured; as well as several high profile political assassinations (Pierre Gemayel and Mohamad Chatah spring to mind); but the kind of violence that could be about to be wrought on Lebanon hasn’t been seen in almost 20 years.
It certainly looks as though Israel is itching for a second war to its north, why else would it blow up pagers and walkie-talkies killing and injuring several suspected Hezbollah militants, but also civilians, including two children and four health workers who died as a result of their close proximity to the explosions. After the explosions, Israel Defense Minister Yoah Gallant declared that a new phase of war had begun in the North, an ominous harbinger of things to come.
Expect Israel to conduct itself just like it did in 2006; that is by breaking international law
If Hezbollah had exploded pagers and walkie-talkies, as Israel did, would the western press not call it terrorism? In response to these explosions, Hezbollah’s secretary general Hasan Nasrallah stated that Israel had “crossed all rules, laws and red lines,” vowing retaliation but again stressing that he does not wish for an escalation to the conflict.
Throughout the last few months, Nasrallah has shown impressive restraint in his words and actions, looking more responsible than Israel’s reckless and increasingly desperate Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who knows that in order to survive politically and stave off a potential prison sentence if found guilty of corruption, he needs to keep Israel at war for as long as possible.
The United States meanwhile warned against any escalation of the conflict, with Secretary of State Anthony Blinken stating, “it’s imperative that all parties refrain from any actions that could escalate the conflict.” Two days later, Israel conducted a targeted strike in Beirut which killed 14 people and wounded dozens. It’s rather pathetic that the world’s most powerful nation can’t get a country the size of Israel, whom it gives billions of dollars in aid every year, to tow the line.
Expect Israel to conduct itself just like it did in 2006; that is by breaking international law; especially when it comes to the use of cluster bombs. A Human Rights Watch study carried out on the 2006 conflict regarding Israel’s use of cluster bombs in Southern Lebanon found that “Israel's strikes in 2006 were the most extensive use of cluster munitions anywhere in the world since the 1991 Gulf War.”
The study also stated that “research in more than 40 towns and villages found that the IDF's use of cluster munitions was both indiscriminate and disproportionate, in violation of IHL, and in some locations possibly a war crime. In dozens of towns and villages, Israel used cluster munitions containing submunitions with known high failure rates. These left behind homes, gardens, fields, and public spaces-including a hospital-littered with hundreds of thousands and possibly up to one million unexploded submunitions.”
The worst part of it all was that the majority of the cluster bombs dropped by Israel in Southern Lebanon during the conflict were dropped “in the final three days when Israel knew a settlement was imminent.” Got that? When Israel knew a ceasefire was about to be implemented is when they dropped most of the cluster bombs in the South. Classy behaviour from the only (supposed) democracy in the Middle East.
Should a full-blown war break out, expect Lebanon to be the centre of a wider regional and global conflict. No doubt Iran will get involved considering its relationship with Hezbollah. Given its historical influence in Lebanon, Syria will also look for a part to play. Saudi Arabia’s economic investments in Lebanon through the years mean it too would have a vested interest should the situation in Lebanon escalate.
America would not stay on the sidelines either if Israel, its biggest ally in the Middle East, is attacked in any significant way. And finally, would Russia, a country with significant influence in the region after its involvement in the war in Syria, just stand still? I doubt it. As such, the death and destruction Lebanon once knew could be about to return with horrific consequences.
Pity the nation yet again indeed.
Mark Manduca has a Master’s degree in Diplomatic Studies from the Mediterranean Academy of Diplomatic Studies