The Maltese economy has done extraordinarily well over the last decade. GDP has grown by 153% and current levels of economic growth are recognised by many as an outstanding achievement.
At the same time, while the indigenous Maltese population has remained broadly stable at 400,000, the total resident population has increased by 31% to 564,000 and nearly one in three residents are not Maltese. In recent years, 42,000 individuals arrive, while 21,000 leave, each year.
As a result, the labour force increased by just over 100,000 to 391,000. EU nationals in employment went up by a factor of x3 to 36,000, while third-country nationals in employment went up by a factor of x12 to 79,000 and now make up one in four of the workforce. Population growth has turbo-charged the economy.
On a GDP per capita basis, the position is more nuanced and the growth per person stands at 44% over the last decade. Comparing Malta’s GDP per capita with Cyprus, a fellow EU accession state with a relatively similar economic profile, we find that the gap increased over this period. Cyprus’ GDP per capita was €2,500 higher than Malta’s in 2013 and, a decade later, is still €3,000 higher per person, while their population increased by a modest 8%.
Meanwhile, tourist arrivals have increased from 1.6 million in 2013 to 3.6 million in 2024. The Deloitte Tourism Carrying Capacity study suggests that between 4.0 and 4.4 million annual arrivals will be required to sustain occupancy at 2023 levels in the face of the upcoming bed-stock pipeline.
The government has put forward ‘Vision 2050’ as an exercise that requires national consensus where the needs and aspirations of the country as a whole are at the forefront. Its frame of mind is one of confidence and strength in that we should now be able to choose the types of jobs, investment and tourists we seek.
At the Deloitte Annual Forum, held last month, I had the pleasure of moderating a lively panel on this topic. On the panel were Norman Aquilina (CEO, Farsons Group), educator Bernie Mizzi (Chiswick and St Martin’s College), professor Marie Briguglio (University of Malta) and perit Konrad Xuereb (KonceptX).
Aquilina pointed out that for such a 25-year plan to work, it needs to be a national vision with a national sense of ownership and a plan of how to get there, translating ideas into policy and policy into reality. There was consensus on the panel that our vision now needs to look beyond growth and that we need to look at the challenges ahead that take into account our sustainable competitiveness, capabilities, skills shortages and measures of well-being.
We should strive to do better and not leave others behind in our narrow pursuit of prosperity
Briguglio invited those present to think more broadly about other measures of economic success, pointing out that GDP growth alone does not necessarily lead to more sustainability, social justice or well-being. She pointed out that Malta fares badly in international studies on some well-being measures and that we seem to feel disproportionately more stressed, worried and anxious than our economic wealth would suggest.
The distribution of GDP must also be taken into account. Notwithstanding Malta’s obvious economic success at a headline level, Malta has 48,968 individuals who are ‘materially deprived’ and 159,485 individuals who cannot afford to go on holiday away from home for one week a year. We should strive to do better and not leave others behind in our narrow pursuit of prosperity.
From an educational perspective, Mizzi spoke passionately about the need to have the courage to first consider the broader challenges brought on by society’s changing pace. She spoke about the concepts of depthlessness and breathlessness as the pace of life does not allow profundity to flourish, when style and surface-thinking drive the agenda rather than clarity of what we really want.
Malta’s PISA results indicate some immediate challenges and necessary areas of focus in upskilling our students and, ultimately, our workforce. However, we must also look at critical thinking, creativity and address the current tendency for inattentiveness when shaping our educational vision.
An earlier ‘Sustainable Development Vision 2050’ publication by the government had pointed out that “with no change in the current transport policy and no additional transport measures being implemented, congestion will cost the Maltese economy over €128 million per annum in 2050, equating to an annual loss of 8.2% of Malta’s GDP”.
With over 100,000 more cars on the road since 2013 and traffic jams everywhere, doing nothing differently will not work in the long term. Architect and engineer Xuereb discussed the case for a Malta metro, as his studies show that with the current population and modest levels of usage by residents and tourists, such a major and game-changing infrastructural project would be viable, with the main phase completed within five years.
Complemented by local bus routes, cycling and other active transport measures, this would form a trunk and branch network throughout the densely populated areas of Malta and, in time, extend to a fixed link to Gozo.
Other infrastructural projects to join communities and encourage walking and cycling would also be included. By way of an example, Xuereb’s proposal for a pedestrian/cycle bridge from Tigné Point to Valletta may seem bold and radical, but is similar in length to the Millennium Bridge crossing the River Thames in London.
EU President Roberta Metsola’s address on predictability, stability and prosperity urged the business leaders present to abandon political tribalism to focus on the bigger picture while carrying out self-critical analysis and having the courage to change course where needed. Now is the time for strategic thinking leading to strategic planning, analysis and stress tests leading to implementation plans towards bold transformations and prosperity for all, she said.
As the debate concluded, delegates at the Deloitte Annual Forum were asked to name the top areas of focus they wished to see in ‘Vision 2050’. Responses showed that well-being, fairness, value-added, migration, governance, technology and infrastructure are all top of mind.
Nick Captur is a director at Deloitte.
The Deloitte Annual Forum is an invitation-only event held each year with business leaders to discuss topical events and upcoming challenges. The 2025 edition was held on January 24.