Statistics show that, for the first time since World War II, the number of countries moving towards an authoritarian form of government exceeds the number of those edging towards democracy. Democracy has been in decline around the world for more than a decade, according to leading measures of it globally.
The most blatant assault on democratic norms in a long time came nearly a year ago in the form of Russia’s attempted invasion of Ukraine, which was curtailed only because Russia underestimated the task at hand and Ukraine staged a heroic resistance bolstered by the unified backing of western nations against this uncivilised outrage.
The defence of democratic values has become a rallying cry in the rhetoric of support for Ukraine. Yet, in a report out last Monday, Carnegie Europe, the Brussels research office of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, finds that the war has ironically pushed the EU’s immediate priorities away from supporting democracy and towards issues revolving around security. As governments spent hundreds of billions of euros in energy subsidies, the report says, their commitment to democracy was equivalent to only a tiny percentage of this. This was “despite so much talk about the urgent need to defend democracy against Russian aggression and growing global autocracy”.
The report also says that, while many Central and Eastern European countries championed democracy within EU foreign policy, some, such as Poland, were targeted by EU measures against continued democratic deficiencies. On the other hand, the EU’s renewed focus on enlargement means candidate states will need to strengthen democracy internally on the road to membership.
Globally, the drop-off in democracy over the decade has been blamed by some on supranational organisations like the EU and the UN for not having done enough to stop the rise of factors that serve as fertile soil for the emergence of national strongmen.
In some nations where democracy is fully established, the very tools of democracy, such as voting in elections or lobbying elected officials, are proving less and less reliable as a means by which citizens’ lives can be improved. This leads to disillusionment with democratic systems.
Feeling helpless to bring about change from within the system, in some countries people are trying to do it from without, by taking part in mass protests, for example. Studies show, however, that protest movements don’t achieve rapid or transformational political change in ways they used to. But – even when they are violently crushed, such as in Iran, Hong Kong and Afghanistan – the underlying grievances remain a force for change.
Some political leaders will kid themselves that as long as they are in power they can eternally hold back what in reality is the basic character of democracy – change. While grassroot movements to bring about change can be powerful, global institutions play a critical role in supporting the growth of democracy around the world. They need to become more outspoken in their statements, resolutions and diplomatic pressure against autocratic forces.
These institutions also need to redouble their efforts on several other fronts. They could provide more technical assistance and financial support to countries looking to strengthen their democratic institutions like electoral systems and judicial processes. They could encourage more transparency and accountability by promoting open data initiatives, anti-corruption measures and freedom of information laws. And they need to provide greater support to civil society organsations, including the media, who work to hold governments accountable.
The terrible Ukraine war has had some silver linings. One is a strengthened belief that liberal democracy is still the best way to govern people.