Editorial: Changing the electoral boundaries

Unsurprisingly, the latest electoral boundaries changes did not find consensus among the members of the Electoral Commission. The bone of contention is the issue of splitting up localities to ensure the 12 districts in Malta would fall in the permitted 5% variation from the mean.

In a nutshell, the majority report attempted to make minimal changes to the previous boundaries. As a result, the latest and most notable change is splitting up Birkirkara between the first and the eighth districts.

On the other hand, the minority report suggests an extensive overhaul of the districts as we know them today, ensuring no locality is split bar Madliena, a small hamlet in Swieqi.

As experts in the field already stated, any changes to the district boundaries will unlikely affect the outcome of a general election in terms of parties. The changes will only affect the chances of individual candidates who might have to go back to the drawing board to canvass in a completely new district.

There is however one proviso for this assessment and that is that no third party manages to win a seat in parliament. In the event of a small party or an independent candidate winning a seat, the composition of boundaries and talk of gerrymandering will become relevant.

Let us for the sake of the argument assume the improbable but still plausible scenario that a third party does make it to parliament. What will happen then?

For a start, the proportionality mechanism will not kick in and no top-up seats will be awarded to the party, which would require them to restore proportionality between parliamentary seats and first-preference votes unless a party wins the absolute majority of votes.

The party with the absolute majority of seats will get the right to govern. So, if for instance Party A wins 47% of votes and 34 seats, Party B wins 48% of votes and 30 seats, while Party C wins 5% and wins one seat, Party A will get the right to govern despite winning fewer first preferences. If no party wins an absolute parliamentary majority, then a majority will have to be formed through a coalition or a parliamentary deal.

The election of a third party in parliament will also affect the gender mechanism as this is tied to the proportionality clause which only kicks in when two parties are elected.

So, the direct consequence of such an eventuality will result in a smaller parliament and, in all probability, much less female MPs.

The most notable change in the boundaries is the movement of a part of Birkirkara from the eighth to the first district.

This is very significant as, in all probability and all things being equal, the chances of the PN flipping the first district have increased considerably.

On the other side of the coin, in the event of a PL big win, there is a slight probability that the PN loses its third seat in what used to be one of its strongholds, the eighth district.

Our country cannot afford a political crisis like the one in 1981, when the PN won a majority of votes and yet Labour ruled for the next five years based on the number of seats won. 

Although the election of a third party in parliament appears to be unlikely for the time being, such an eventuality is not impossible especially when one considers the increasing number of abstentions from one election to the other.

In view of this, it is time for the two big parties to sit down and discuss a holistic electoral reform which, while safeguarding stable governments, also ensures the sovereign right of electors.