As we look ahead to 2025, Malta’s political scene stands at an interesting juncture.

The outgoing year has seen the most significant shift in the political narrative for well over a decade, suggesting the Labour Party’s dominance and unassailable lead could be nearing its end.

June’s European election results served as a strong indicator of this shift, revealing that Labour’s strategy of throwing money at every problem might be losing its electoral impact. But to be fair, it also highlights the natural political cycle, where electoral dominance eventually breeds complacency, and the erosion of trust begins, no matter how many economic successes are touted. Ask the Dom Mintoff, Eddie Fenech Adami and Lawrence Gonzi administrations – there comes a point when people simply yearn for change.

A general election is not scheduled until 2027, but the possibility of a snap election to mitigate the decline in the PL’s popularity remains a theoretical option.

Which is why in the last week we learnt of two new political parties joining the arena in January. The Partit Malta Progressiv (PMP) wants to be the party for left-leaning, liberal, and progressive voters, while Arnold Cassola’s Momentum Party is expected to target the middle ground, potentially attracting voters who no longer find the PN as their natural home.

Additionally, NGO Il-Kollettiv is also considering entering the political fray, and the Green Party, ADPD, is determined to continue its pursuit of a seat in parliament, despite failing to do so since its inception. Still, this proliferation of political entities promises to significantly diversify the Maltese political landscape.

Without a unified effort and the elimination of egos, smaller parties may find themselves stuck in a perpetual cycle of fragmentation

However, it also introduces a challenge: fragmentation. With new parties springing up with similar agendas – fighting corruption, promoting human rights, and addressing environmental concerns – there is a real risk of diluting the political voice of those demanding change. Issues like abortion or specific socialist ideologies will always be dividing factors, but the smaller parties will have to understand that some form of middle ground needs to be found.

Without a unified effort and the elimination of egos, smaller parties may find themselves stuck in a perpetual cycle of fragmentation. And voters never liked that.

The battleground will be primarily those disenchanted with the PL and PN, as well as the large bloc of non-voters. The 2024 MEP elections saw over 33,000 votes cast for third parties or independent candidates. A substantial 110,000 either did not vote or invalidated their ballot papers.

One source told Times of Malta that PMP wants to emulate the fast rise of Emmanuel Macron in France, even if the conservative behaviour of the Maltese voter, compounded by the country’s electoral system, makes it an uphill struggle for new parties to make inroads.  To stem their voter losses, the PL and the PN need to find a way to inspire confidence, and take risks in the coming two years.

The Maltese voter is increasingly focused on fundamental issues like inflation, overpopulation, and environmental degradation. These ‘bread and butter’ issues are taking precedence over traditional political rhetoric.

Populist and far-right movements have thrived in other countries where citizens feel overlooked, and this is why Maltese political parties must remain focused on issues like tackling economic inequality, boosting healthcare and yes, fighting misinformation.

While opting not to vote is a democratic right, it is essential that Malta’s citizens feel they have viable options when the time comes to cast their ballot. Some parties will, undoubtedly, resort to populist sentiments, but in the long run, this is a dangerous route that will switch off the moderates. The coming year is poised to be a test of political agility and relevance. And that is not a bad thing.