When people think of the EU, they may oftentimes think of its role as a legislative powerhouse, for better or for worse; to protect the interests of its citizens or to seemingly impose its will on the peoples of Europe. They may think of it as a symbol of unity, or as a supranational organisation hell-bent on eroding national sovereignty. Regardless of one’s opinions on the Union, there are aspects of its work which are of tantamount importance, at bare minimum on a humanitarian level.

As part of the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy, a number of monitoring operations are held in areas of the world where the security situation is fragile or has already collapsed. At the time of writing, the EU has 21 ongoing missions of this nature, 12 of which are civilian and nine of which are military.

One of these missions is based in Armenia: the EU Mission in Armenia referred to as EUMA for short. An often-overlooked region of the world, the Caucasus was until recently host to one of the world’s − and indeed Europe’s − frozen conflicts. Simply defined, a frozen conflict is when armed conflict is fought and subsequently comes to an end with no peace treaty or political solution to resolve the situation to the satisfaction of either of the parties involved.

Oftentimes, these frozen conflicts may result in the creation of partially recognised states. Many such post-Soviet frozen conflicts emerged in the wake of the USSR’s collapse. Examples include the so-called Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic, known to many as Transnistria, within de jure Moldova; the so-called republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia within de jure Georgia and, until recently, the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, also known as the Republic of Artsakh within de jure Azerbaijan.

Just as overlooked as the region it lay within was the news of the Republic of Artsakh’s collapse, which happened after just 24 hours of a military offensive launched by Azerbaijan on September 19, 2023. This was the second offensive in recent years, with the previous being fought from September to November 2020, which resulted in Azerbaijan recapturing territories and isolating Artsakh from Armenia.

For the next three years, Armenia and Artsakh were only connected via what was referred to as the Lachin corridor, supervised by Russian peacekeepers. In late 2022, Azerbaijan imposed a blockade on the breakaway republic. The first modern war in Karabakh was fought all the way back in 1992, lasting till 1994, with the conflict re-emerging to rear its head in 1988 as the Soviet Union started to disintegrate. However, a war was fought over Karabakh and surrounding regions all the way back in 1918, lasting till 1920, and was fought in the backdrop of the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire and the Russian Civil War.

Though the war over Nagorno-Karabakh seems to have concluded with the republic’s dissolution in 2023, the region is far from stable. While arrangements between Azerbaijan and Iran have been made for an alternative route to its landlocked exclave of Nakhchivan, the possibilities of Azerbaijani President Aliyev seeking a more fixed solution through military conquest of the Zangezur corridor remain plausible. This is especially feared due to Aliyev’s rhetoric that modern-day Armenia is “Western Azerbaijan” and that “present-day Armenia is our land.”

Many similar missions to EUMA exist. It is a symbol of EU power projection, although limited in scope and ability

With the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) practically becoming defunct, particularly since Russia’s pre-occupation in its illegal invasion of Ukraine, Armenia finds itself increasingly isolated and weak, with an outdated army facing an Azerbaijani army that is backed by Türkiye; though it has recently negotiated arms acquisition from France and India.

Additionally, Iran serves as a counterweight for further Azerbaijani expansion in the area, with it seeking to quell any self-determination or unification movements within its three northwestern provinces which collectively form what is referred to as the Iranian Azerbaijan region. It also seeks to ensure Armenia keeps control of the Zangezur corridor, which Iran exploits in several ways, firstly as access for itself to the Black Sea and, by extension, the Mediterranean and onwards, and, in doing so, the possibility of evading sanctions.

Secondly, the inability of Azerbaijan to secure a Zangezur corridor means that the Turkic world does not gain a fully Turkic-controlled territorial link, meaning also that an alternative route may be sought through Iranian territory, granting Iran revenue and also ensuring its continued part in the Chinese Belt and Road initiative.

To say the least, this overlooked region of the world has extremely complex geopolitical dynamics. It is, therefore, all the more important that third-parties such as the EU step in to build stability and prevent the outbreak of conflict in the future. The aforementioned EUMA was deployed on February 20, 2023, with a two-year mandate. It includes 103 international staff hailing from EU member states, with a headquarters in Yeghegnadzor and six forward operating bases and a planned liaison and support office in Yerevan.

Their mandate is to “observe and report on the situation on the ground; contribute to human security in conflict-affected areas and contribute to building confidence between the populations of both Armenia and Azerbaijan and, where possible, their authorities”.

As previously discussed, many similar missions to EUMA exist. It is a symbol of EU power projection, although limited in scope and ability. Additionally, they serve to set a precedent for any future monitoring or peacekeeping missions that may be necessary to mount, such as in Ukraine where the war has, as described by General Zaluzhny of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, become a stalemate with mostly positional warfare occurring. This war, thus, risks becoming another post-Soviet frozen conflict, much as it had been from 2014 to 2022 with Russian-annexed Crimea and the self-proclaimed People’s Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk.

As the 2024 US election looms, and, with that, the possibility of an isolationist Donald Trump being once again elected as president, it is ever the more important that Europe build its own hegemony if it seeks to survive and not to solely rely on American goodwill.

Missions such as these are a start.

 

Nathan Portelli is content and policy officer, JEF Malta (Young European Federalists).