On August 23, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Dmitriy Utkin, Valeriy Chekalov, seven other passengers and three crew members died when their plane crashed in an area northwest of Moscow. Prigozhin and Utkin were the co-founders of the controversial Wagner Group while Chekalov was their trusted senior aide.
Prigozhin hit the headlines in June when he launched a brief but short-lived mutiny against Russian President Vladimir Putin. He only confirmed his involvement with the group in late 2022. By then, it had become a lynchpin in Moscow’s strategy in Ukraine.
The Wagner Group was instrumental in capturing various Ukrainian strongholds in the East, not least Soledar and Bakhmut. By the end of 2022, the latter city was practically in ruins.
Nonetheless, even before the attempted mutiny, Prigozhin had been critical of Russia’s military leadership. The origins of the failed uprising are as mysterious as its end; the Wagner Group fighters relocated to Belarus ostensibly to avoid the loss of further Russian blood. Since then, Putin’s rule has continued relatively unopposed – at least in public.
The Ukrainian government has been quick to describe the incident as a “manifestation of Putin’s Russia.” US President Joe Biden did not express surprise. Earlier, he said that had he been Prigozhin, he would be mindful of what he’d eat – a clear reference to Putin’s modus operandi with critics and rebels. The US Secretary of State, Anthony Bliken, had more direct words: “NATO has an open-door policy; Russia has an open-windows policy.”
Putin is increasingly becoming aware of the dangers of a disgruntled military complex
The news of Prigozhin’s death came on the same day Sergei Surovikin was sacked as Commander-in-Chief of the Aerospace Forces. Surovikin allegedly knew about the Wagner uprising from beforehand. Putin is closing full circle on his critics and those who can challenge his authority further.
However, Prigozhin’s demise will likely have widespread repercussions – not all favourable to the Kremlin. In Russia itself, the Wagner mercenaries may be difficult to control; without any leadership, these fighters are rudderless and could be unpredictable. It is also difficult to gauge the role of the Wagner Group in terms of how it meets Russian geopolitical aims.
While often referred to in corporate terms, the Wagner Group is more of a paramilitary organisation with extensive business networks enabling different operations in dangerous hot spots, such as resource extraction and smuggling.
In addition to Ukraine, it has widely been linked to operations in the Central African Republic, Mali, Libya, Sudan and Syria.
All of its activities bolster Russia’s presence abroad and subvert Europe’s traditional role in the region. It is highly doubtful that the Kremlin can reach its geopolitical aims without the Wagner Group’s assistance. It may lack the expertise, contacts and knowledge that Wagner operatives have built over the years. Despite the apparent fallout with Prigozhin, the Kremlin has never sought to dismantle Wagner’s infrastructure. Indeed, Prigozhin still moved with relative ease in Russia.
After the failed mutiny, the group has even strengthened its presence in some countries. This may indicate this group’s influence in terms of Russian strategic interests.
The Kremlin’s role in the post-Prigozhin era will be crucial, particularly in securing the loyalty of the mercenaries – a tall order if there ever was one.
What is certain is that Putin is increasingly becoming aware of the dangers of a disgruntled military complex. The events of this week point to possible tensions among Russian military leadership and a desire to consolidate power.
Putin’s undeniable show of force and influence still betrays a growing sense of insecurity among his inner circle.